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Why we didn't make the Play-offs

Ravi

Ravi

Upper Decker
Personally, I’d rather get to the final and lose.

Ultimately though, it makes no difference. As Francis said on another thread, to paraphrase, Forest, Brentford, Cardiff and Swansea will all be in the Championship again next season.
 
Fitzcarraldo

Fitzcarraldo

Ian Storey-Moore
Speaking as a hard determinist, I'd say it started with the 'big bang'.
 
Fitzcarraldo

Fitzcarraldo

Ian Storey-Moore
Forest not making the play-offs.
 
Captain Sinister

Captain Sinister

Senior doom Monger
HBB said:
Ok Sinister you wanted some considered analysis well here's my two penneth worth.

If you look at how Lamouchi got us to where we were
1) Lamouchi prefers a 4-2-3-1 line-up with Ribiero and Cash as full-backs Joe Worrall and Figueiredo at centre-back. Ben Watson playing the pivot role in a pretty defensive midfield with Lolley as the central attacking midfielder, Sammy Ameobi and Diakhaby at right and left wing respectively with Grabban as the lone striker.

2) His alternative is 4-1-4-1, with the same defence, the wingers come in a bit to play more as wide midfielders. Grabban alone again but in midfield Watson is the lone holding midfielder with Silva and Yates a bit more advanced to get the ball up to Grabban.

Defence
SL likes a defence with a low block making it hard for opponents to find pockets of attacking space. The midfield drop back in front of the back four and Watson then moves to support the defensive midfield on the side being probed. That should make it hard for the opposition to pass forward and when they are pressured and they lose the ball the Forest midfield and wingers are ready to counter-attack along with the striker.

I'd argue it's negative, passive and overly rigid when done badly but we did have one of the best defensive records in the division. However its also risky and susceptible if the opposition either a) have creative players who can pick passes with well-timed runs by strikers and wingers b) bypass the midfield with high balls into a strong central attacker, supported by on-rushing opposition support players.

We finished fifth in the defensive tables - take out the really poor thrashings by Sheffield Wednesday, Stoke and Millwall and we'd be rightly regarded as one of the soundest in the league but its a system that ultimately invites the opposition to come on to us and I would argue that's a huge weakness when coupled with our low yield attacking set-up.

Attacking
Forest were at best mid-table for attacking stats and relied massively on the counter attack, preferring to concede possession in our own half and then exploit the opposition’s space on the counter. Looking at the overall stats for the season we have some of the lowest possession figures per game but we do take around 12-14 shots per game, though most are outside the box and the conversion rate is low. We also lose alot of possession in the same top quarter of the field.

This looks to be because in the main Lamouchi's system is focussed in a very specific type of attack creating chances for a lone striker. It's great that Grabban has repaid the faith placed in him, but the problem is that few others have weighed in with that many goals - Lolley and laterly Ameobi to a certain extent, but nothing like the kind of scoring that the top teams like Brentford, Leeds etc get from the rest of the team. Looking at Brentford for instance they have three players in the top 10 divisional goalscorers this season. So great that Grabban has got so many goals but its a system that's built to give him chances and actually limits the opportunities for others and if Grabban's not on form and especially if the defence fails we're always up against it because we're not going to score many.

That's expecially dangerous because if we're not counter attacking and we look to build from the back we throw a lot of men forward to create space. Against teams that don't use the low block there's usually enough space for the wingers or wing-backs but it means our players have to have lots of stamina, having been deep in defence to then run up to attack. They wil get tired so if you look at how many late and sloppy goals we've conceded you can make a case for explaining why its happened, tired players, teams allowed to come on to us etc.

We used the wings well at times but I'd argue it only really worked well on the right and only when Ameobi and Cash were in harness together. When we had the right people we could go down the right-wing with the midfield playing long balls to that side ideally with a man in space who can hold the ball and pass it around until space opened up in the final third. Ameobi tended to play as a wide target man, holding the ball until Cash arrives and when he does Ameobi drifts in centrally and acts as a goalscoring option. But crucially without the industry of Cash this route dries up.

The full-backs are crucial to Lamouchi's system and neeed to play with a high work rate. Defensively their jobs are to ensure there are no opposition runs on the wings and to cover any balls coming their way. When it works it helps to create the chance to counter-attack. When countering both full-backs are expected to create overlaps and provide extra men in attack to play crosses to Grabban or Ameobi who as I've said is freed up to drift centrally when Cash is up. Cash and Ribeiro’s runs help stretch the opposition defence and create space for the midfielders and wingers to make runs and remain open.

Those are the main ways we attacked this season but what's missing from most of us is the midfield. Our current crop weren't offensively focussed most of the time, Sow and Watson are both defensive, Sow in the destroyer role with Lolley as our best option as a creative midfielder, which I'd argue he's not. At least in the way most seem to want. There's no midfielder general a Roy Keane-esque figure or a driving Hodge style midfield. Yates you could say has the engine which Lamouchi clearly likes but he doesn't have the nous or the vision, at best he's an energetic runner to get the ball up to Grabban on the counter and get back quick, but does he create, no. Silva - hard to say what his role is. Like many of the Portuguese players he has skill and close control but that isn't what Lamouchi is looking for in that position - bit of a curate's egg I'd say.

So why didn't we make the playoffs?
All in all I think it's a system that works ok if a) your first choice players are all fit and healthy b) the opposition can't work through the heavy rigid defence c) your lone striker is on-fire all season. But if the first choice are injured then our bench doesn't have players who can do what the first choice players can do and Lamouchi hasn't drilled the squad in who to change formations that use different players like a Bostock or more especially a Carvalho. Walker will never get a chance while Grabban is fit for the single striker spot.

The system could have got us there but a) we didn't stay fit and healthy - losing Cash and Lolley for those games after the restart meant the system disintegrated b) teams figured out that they could score by either playing neat passing football through the middle of the park and avoiding the full backs and stopping the counter attack (Millwall 3-0) or punting over the low block into big strikers and coming on to us at pace (Sheff Wednesday especially).
Click to expand...

That's more like it!
Sound arguments backed with evidence.
My work here is done.
 
Senior Flange Technician

Senior Flange Technician

Andy!
Back to the question. Ultimately, I think its because you touch yourself.
 
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