The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

[Red Echo]

 

[Trents]

Burnley have to win as Spurs and us to lose v Chelsea. They are as good as down.

 

[Robertson]

Come five thirty next Saturday we’ll know whether we need to win to all but guarantee we stay up, draw to all but guarantee we stay up, or we’ll already be all but guaranteed to stay up. Either way let’s just go out and beat Chelsea anyway and put this season to bed.

 

[Thomas]

Come five thirty next Saturday we’ll know whether we need to win to all but guarantee we stay up, draw to all but guarantee we stay up, or we’ll already be all but guaranteed to stay up. Either way let’s just go out and beat Chelsea anyway and put this season to bed.

So if luton and Burnley lose next weekend, with our GD it doesn’t really matter right? We should be safe?


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[RedDogChris]

Hopefully if we can get a point against Chelsea that will be enough as I don't see Luton going to West Ham and getting all three points tbh. Would be lovely to go into the last game stress free again

 

[Mr. Blonde]

So if luton and Burnley lose next weekend, with our GD it doesn’t really matter right


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If Burnley lose then they're down

If Luton lose they could still draw level on points but they'd be -12 relative to us on GD minimum before we play

Zero chance they're overturning that

 

[Robertson]

So if luton and Burnley lose next weekend, with our GD it doesn’t really matter right? We should be safe?


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Barring a couple of six nils or something.

 

[justnotjase]

Get a couple of points back on appeal would be amazing now, would effectively mean we only needed another point.

 

[Thomas]

You know after that Sabri stoke defeat at home, I’d rather us just beat Chelsea


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[Haych]

Start the dogfight 24/25 thread cause we’re safe.

 

[GreeksBearingGifts]

It's Orthodox Easter (and I'm on holiday in the most majestic mountains of the known universe) so I guess it's time for the resurrection.

 

[Jah]

We are now 8-1 to go down on oddschecker.

Burnley are 1-100 and Luton are 1-20

 

[Quntib Hollox]

Quick drop the appeal!!

 

[Listen 'ere young man]

Cannot underestimate the importance of this win.

We could effectively be safe before we next play.

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[Mr. Blonde]

From the Opta supercomputer!

 

[Statto]

If Luton don't beat WH we're pretty much done.

If Luton do win, and we lose to Chelsea, then they're level on points and it becomes a last day shoot out. Given that there we're probably going to do Burnley, Luton would need to win that too to stand a chance.

So we're looking at Luton winning 2 in a row then most likely.

 

[Bob Fossil]

With last night result plus 3 points today I'd say we're all but safe.

 

[Statto]

With last night result plus 3 points today I'd say we're all but safe.

Well, there are a few permutations which would mean we'll go down but they're less likely than the ones which don't.

 

[TrickyTree101]

Computer says our chance for religation now stands at 7% - hopefully both teams below lose next week and we can chill out and relax and actually enjoy watching a match

 

[Statto]

17 Forest 36 29
18 Luton 36 26
19 Burnley 36 24

May 11
1500 W Ham vs Luton
1500 Spurs vs Burnley
1730 Forest vs Chelsea

Luton win, Forest win, Burnley win
17 Forest 37 32
18 Luton 36 29
19 Burnley 36 27 - relegated

Luton win, Burnley win, Forest lose
17 Forest 37 29
18 Luton 37 29
19 Burnley 37 27

Luton lose, Forest win, Burnley win
17 Forest 37 32
18 Luton 37 26 - relegated
19 Burnley 37 24 - relegated

Luton lose, Forest lose, Burnley lose
17 Forest 37 29
18 Luton 37 26
19 Burnley 37 24 - relegated

Any scenario where we're going into the last day 3 points clear will probably mean we'll be safe as that GD isn't likely to be overhauled (in the PL as opposed to chasing play offs in the CH anyway). So that means this one is probably the only one meaning we'd mathematically have something to play for going into the last day

I haven't looked at draws because it didn't seem worth it

17 Forest 37 29
18 Luton 37 29
19 Burnley 37 27

19th May
Burnley vs Forest
Luton vs Fulham

Burnley win would see them finish above us
Luton would then need to get a point to relegate us
If we draw then a Luton win would send us down

 

[Bing Crosby's Head]

17 Forest 37 29
18 Luton 37 29
19 Burnley 37 27

19th May
Burnley vs Forest
Luton vs Fulham

Burnley win would see them finish above us
Luton would then need to get a point to relegate us
If we draw then a Luton win would send us down

In that scenario a Burnley win would mean it wouldn't matter what Luton do.

 

[Statto]

In that scenario a Burnley win would mean it wouldn't matter what Luton do.

17 Forest 37 29
18 Luton 37 29
19 Burnley 37 27

Burnley win would mean
Forest 29
Burnley 30

Luton start on 29

Luton losing would keep them on 29
Burnley 30
Forest 29
Luton 29
(go down to GD, so we'd probably stay up)

Luton draw would put them on 30
Burnley 30
Luton 30
Forest 29
(we'd go down)

Luton win would put them on 32
Luton 32
Burnley 30
Forest 29
(we'd go down)

So two scenarios would relegate us and one might but probably won't

 

[Bing Crosby's Head]

17 Forest 37 29
18 Luton 37 29
19 Burnley 37 27

Burnley win would mean
Forest 29
Burnley 30

Luton start on 29

Luton losing would keep them on 29
Burnley 30
Forest 29
Luton 29
(go down to GD, so we'd probably stay up)

Luton draw would put them on 30
Burnley 30
Luton 30
Forest 29
(we'd go down)

Luton win would put them on 32
Luton 32
Burnley 30
Forest 29
(we'd go down)

So two scenarios would relegate us and one might but probably won't

Two of the three teams go down so it only takes Burnley going above us to relegate us.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

We're not getting relegated

 

[ARedChester]

If Luton don't beat WH we're pretty much done.

If Luton do win, and we lose to Chelsea, then they're level on points and it becomes a last day shoot out. Given that there we're probably going to do Burnley, Luton would need to win that too to stand a chance.

So we're looking at Luton winning 2 in a row then most likely.

I wouldnt be so confident on doing Burnley. They have been having a right go at teams, which whilst they have not got the results, we are Forest and rode our luck today ..... for a change.