The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

[Rockabilly]

As is the manager.

Absolutely.

 

[football post]

Absolutely.

I just don't think he's interested mate. I really hope he can inspire them to find some passion and fight but I can't see it.

 

[Ashley]

I've resigned myself to the fact we are going down. We have a disinterested manager, half the squad don't look up for it and off the pitch we are a shambles.

At this point, I'm more worried about how much FFP is going to shaft us in the Championship. If we need to raise about £30m before June to stay within FFP if we somehow stay in the Premier League what is going to happen to us in the Championship?

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

I've resigned myself to the fact we are going down. We have a disinterested manager, half the squad don't look up for it and off the pitch we are a shambles.

At this point, I'm more worried about how much FFP is going to shaft us in the Championship. If we need to raise about £30m before June to stay within FFP if we somehow stay in the Premier League what is going to happen to us in the Championship?

We'll need to sell about £100m worth.

Or take a points penalty, probably would be 8 next season given second breach and size of it. Might not be terminal but would mean playoffs not autos at best. But even that would require this current team to try a bit harder than they currently are as plenty of Championship sides will fancy going up against us.

Starting to think if we went down we'd stay down. Either because we'd have to sell our good players or because Marinakis would have fingers in his ears and keep this squad/manager (if Nuno cost to stay( even if we were straddling mid table.

 

[Ashley]

We'll need to sell about £100m worth.

Or take a points penalty, probably would be 8 next season given second breach and size of it. Might not be terminal but would mean playoffs not autos at best. But even that would require this current team to try a bit harder than they currently are as plenty of Championship sides will fancy going up against us.

Starting to think if we went down we'd stay down. Either because we'd have to sell our good players or because Marinakis would have fingers in his ears and keep this squad/manager (if Nuno cost to stay( even if we were straddling mid table.

Really don't see us raising £100m from player sales in the Championship. Not before June and the end of the window anyway. And we'd be left with a pretty shit squad after those sales with presumably little money left to strengthen.

What a complete and utter mess this club is in.

 

[garibaldi]

We'll need to sell about £100m worth.

Or take a points penalty, probably would be 8 next season given second breach and size of it. Might not be terminal but would mean playoffs not autos at best. But even that would require this current team to try a bit harder than they currently are as plenty of Championship sides will fancy going up against us.

Starting to think if we went down we'd stay down. Either because we'd have to sell our good players or because Marinakis would have fingers in his ears and keep this squad/manager (if Nuno cost to stay( even if we were straddling mid table.

We'd hit £100m by selling Murillo and MGW whether that's before June I don't know.

Selz
Neco, Omo/Boly, Niahkate, Toff
Yates/Danilo/Dom/Sangare
Aguila
Elanga, Wood/Awoniyi/Dennis, CHO

Sees us coming 2nd behind Burnley. Just depends on whether Nuno is good enough to facilitate automatic promotion.

 

[Ashley]

We'd hit £100m by selling Murillo and MGW whether that's before June I don't know.

Selz
Neco, Omo/Boly, Niahkate, Toff
Yates/Danilo/Dom/Sangare
Aguila
Elanga, Wood/Awoniyi/Dennis, CHO

Sees us coming 2nd behind Burnley. Just depends on whether Nuno is good enough to facilitate automatic promotion.

I can't see us getting £100m for Murillo and MGW in the Championship, and certainly not if some of that needs to be before the end of June. Probably more like £70m I reckon.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

I can't see us getting £100m for Murillo and MGW in the Championship, and certainly not if some of that needs to be before the end of June. Probably more like £70m I reckon.

Wage bill coming down might help, some of our more expensive players like Felipe being out of contract helps.

 

[Ashley]

Wage bill coming down might help, some of our more expensive players like Felipe being out of contract helps.

Good point. Besides Aina and Boly (who the club are actively trying to extend their deals) I think all of the loans and out of contract players will go (including Wood sadly, as he'll have Premier League offers).

So that'll be Arter, Hennessey, Felipe, Wood, Montiel, Tavares, Origi, Reyna and Ribeiro all off the books, off the top of my head.

 

[Erik]

If we go down we'll be fine.

Sure we'll lose the out of contract players and will have to sell some of the jewels to raise funds, but there's nothing wrong with us another 22 players won't help solve.

 

[garibaldi]

I can't see us getting £100m for Murillo and MGW in the Championship, and certainly not if some of that needs to be before the end of June. Probably more like £70m I reckon.

Perhaps you're right, but we also have a lot of shit like Turner and Vlach that can fetch around £5m a piece which will all add up also, leaving us with a squad that isn't so Frankenstein.

 

[Hungry Horace]

Forget the games we should have won; from here on in, we have to do better than Luton’s results each match day. Surely we can do that?


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[Ashley]

Perhaps you're right, but we also have a lot of shit like Turner and Vlach that can fetch around £5m a piece which will all add up also, leaving us with a squad that isn't so Frankenstein.

Perhaps, we'll also probably sell Worrall for about £4-5m too. Plus saving on their wages.

 

[Gyros Peter]

Forget the games we should have won; from here on in, we have to do better than Luton’s results each match day. Surely we can do that?


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That's it in a nutshell. I think we do it.

 

[Cloughie1975]

The next 2 home games against Fulham and Wolves look crucial to me (with the inevitable
defeat at Tottenham sandwiched in between).If we don’t get at least 3 more points before the
final 5 game run-in I think the odds are starting to go against us.
I think 30 points still gives us a good fighting chance of staying up-anything less could well
mean another long stretch out of the top flight and the job Steve Cooper did will all be
fairly irrelevant.
All very sad really but typical Forest I’m afraid.

 

[Gyros Peter]

We'll need to win some games.

I think the Everton away game could be a big one for us, and expect us to make more hard work of things v a weird Fulham side that can be shit, fantastic or both in the same five minutes.

I actually think not losing the 'winables*' might be enough, but it's going to be hard watching.

* I find the idea that there are home bankers at this level ridiculous tbh. At this level you need everyone on their A game and if that's the case you just might get something. It's tough at the top (flight).

 

[Malwood]

Really don't see us raising £100m from player sales in the Championship. Not before June and the end of the window anyway. And we'd be left with a pretty shit squad after those sales with presumably little money left to strengthen.

What a complete and utter mess this club is in.

Come on, people. Let's try not to be melodramatic princesses about it.

 

[Brian Fantana]

PL next season is going to be back to normal difficulty with Leeds, Leicester and maybe Southampton/Ipswich. We can’t spend and may have a possibility of another points deduction. It’s going to be miserable again isn’t it.

Maybe going down will be a blessing, easier Championship next season, play our local rivals again, sort of a reset on our strange squad we’ve built.

 

[Louth Red]

Some incredible negativity posted on this subject especially since the Palace game. A lot of it because of too much expectation on MUST WIN for that game.

The position is very challenging but it is in our own hands. We have reasonable fixtures to secure the points.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride - game by game.

When the pressure is so high we need calm heads. If the players react like the majority of forum posters we have no chance.

Other than Fulham and Liverpool away, virtually all other games have been close affairs. I know that we are not playing well, and can do better. Writing off players will not help us as we need every player available for selection.

I understand supporter frustrations, and I have expressed my views on recent formations and substituitions. However, in our situation we have to stick together. As supporters we can’t impact on team selections or systems, or who should be manager etc. Our brief is unconditional support for the eleven on the pitch.

We are in a hole, the team need our support.

We need to stay up.

Chins up and cut out the negativity.

On to Fulham, Tottenham et al.

COYR

 

[Rockabilly]

Some incredible negativity posted on this subject especially since the Palace game. A lot of it because of too much expectation on MUST WIN for that game.

The position is very challenging but it is in our own hands. We have reasonable fixtures to secure the points.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride - game by game.

When the pressure is so high we need calm heads. If the players react like the majority of forum posters we have no chance.

Other than Fulham and Liverpool away, virtually all other games have been close affairs. I know that we are not playing well, and can do better. Writing off players will not help us as we need every player available for selection.

I understand supporter frustrations, and I have expressed my views on recent formations and substituitions. However, in our situation we have to stick together. As supporters we can’t impact on team selections or systems, or who should be manager etc. Our brief is unconditional support for the eleven on the pitch.

We are in a hole, the team need our support.

We need to stay up.

Chins up and cut out the negativity.

On to Fulham, Tottenham et al.

COYR

I admire your positivity Louth.

 

[Ashley]

Come on, people. Let's try not to be melodramatic princesses about it.

Not exactly melodramatic though, is it? Our financial problems are there for all to see, and we'll obviously have a huge decrease in income if we go down (and will be in a weaker position to demand decent fees for players).

Of course, if you feel the need to insult people who aren't telling what you want to hear then perhaps you might actually be something of a precious little princess yourself.

 

[Robertson]

Really don't see us raising £100m from player sales in the Championship. Not before June and the end of the window anyway. And we'd be left with a pretty shit squad after those sales with presumably little money left to strengthen.

What a complete and utter mess this club is in.

We won’t need to raise 100m by the end of June though, even if we get relegated. That’s just nonsense.

They’ve predicted about a £15m loss this season while we probably need a £9m profit to stay within FFP. So £24m-ish. Probably save a lot of that by not paying tens of millions in bonuses. I assume we won’t be doing that if we get relegated (though you never know ) . Also while I expect the loan fee for Mangala will already have been accounted for, I don’t think the £15m option will have been.

Then yeah, we’d need to sell some more players and cut the wage bill over the rest of the summer. Such is life.

 

[Ashley]

We won’t need to raise 100m by the end of June though, even if we get relegated. That’s just nonsense.

They’ve predicted about a £15m loss this season while we probably need a £9m profit to stay within FFP. So £24m-ish. Probably save a lot of that by not paying tens of millions in bonuses. I assume we won’t be doing that if we get relegated (though you never know ) . Also while I expect the loan fee for Mangala will already have been accounted for, I don’t think the £15m option will have been.

Then yeah, we’d need to sell some more players and cut the wage bill over the rest of the summer. Such is life.

The £100m figure I was referring to was what someone on this thread estimated we'd need to raise in total over the transfer window (if we went down) rather than all of it being needed before the end of June (I didn't make that very clear in my post to be fair). I think I read somewhere that whatever league we are in next season we need to raise about £30m before the end of June, so your estimate of us needing £24m before the end of June is probably not far off the mark.

But we'd need to sell other players on top of that by the end of the transfer window to cover the losses and reduction of income in the Championship. Hopefully the club have planned for this, otherwise it could be a very messy summer if we go down.

 

[Robertson]

The £100m figure I was referring to was what someone on this thread estimated we'd need to raise in total over the transfer window (if we went down) rather than all of it being needed before the end of June (I didn't make that very clear in my post to be fair). I think I read somewhere that whatever league we are in next season we need to raise about £30m before the end of June, so your estimate of us needing £24m before the end of June is probably not far off the mark.

But we'd need to sell other players on top of that by the end of the transfer window to cover the losses and reduction of income in the Championship. Hopefully the club have planned for this, otherwise it could be a very messy summer if we go down.

My guess would be closer to £50m sales needed later in the summer.

Shelvey, Origi, Wood, Felipe, Aurier, Hennessey, Kouyate, Arter (), Montiel, Tavares, Boly will all be off the payroll. Wouldn’t be surprised if losing all that lot practically halves the wage bill. And every player we sell will remove another chunk.

It won’t be pretty, but needn’t be catastrophic.

 

[Ashley]

My guess would be closer to £50m

Shelvey, Origi, Wood, Felipe, Aurier, Hennessey, Kouyate, Arter (), Montiel, Tavares, Boly will all be off the payroll. Wouldn’t be surprised if losing all that lot practically halves the wage bill. And every player we sell will remove another chunk.

It won’t be pretty, but needn’t be catastrophic.

Hopefully your right. Fingers crossed that the club has a plan for both potential scenarios.