The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

[Cloughie1975]

My guess would be closer to £50m sales needed later in the summer.

Shelvey, Origi, Wood, Felipe, Aurier, Hennessey, Kouyate, Arter (), Montiel, Tavares, Boly will all be off the payroll. Wouldn’t be surprised if losing all that lot practically halves the wage bill. And every player we sell will remove another chunk.

It won’t be pretty, but needn’t be catastrophic.

Presumably parachute payments would help prevent a total meltdown as well.

 

[Robertson]

Presumably parachute payments would help prevent a total meltdown as well.

I think we would be screwed without them.

It all depends on the continued goodwill and deep pockets of the owner as well of course.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Presumably parachute payments would help prevent a total meltdown as well.

Parachute payments are £90m less than PL revenue.

Our total revenue in the Championship with parachute payments would be about £75m a year. Were currently spending £130m on wages and about £50m a year for the next three years on amortisation of transfers.

Parachute payments aren't going to save us if we get relegated. Even if we halved the wage bill we would still be f**ked. In that scenario of halving the wage bill we would still need to sell £50m+ of players to be within loss allowance.

Relegation will be a nightmare for us. Have to remember the first season back in the Championship our finances will still be judged on PL revenue as it is a year in arrears so the club might choose to hold onto the squad and try and get promoted in first attempt, but even if we managed that we'd be a shoe in for an 8 point deduction back in the PL, and if we didn't manage to get promoted at first attempt then the squad would be dissembled and we'd have no money to go again, back to square one like where we were prior to Cooper, and again with a points deduction.

 

[Robertson]

In that scenario we would still need to sell £50m+

Yep. Agreed. And think we could do that with MGW and Murillo fairly easily. Who we would miss obviously.

 

[Cloughie1975]

Parachute payments are £90m less than PL revenue.

Our total revenue in the Championship with parachute payments would be about £75m a year. Were currently spending £130m on wages and about £50m a year for the next three years on amortisation of transfers.

Parachute payments aren't going to save us if we get relegated. Even if we halved the wage bill we would still be f**ked. In that scenario we would still need to sell £50m+

Obviously there would be a massive sale but parachute payments would cushion the blow.
Anyone expecting a quick return to the top flight is likely to be disappointed.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Yep. Agreed. And think we could do that with MGW and Murillo fairly easily. Who we would miss obviously.

£50m is likely the absolute minimum rather than the likely target.

Our wages still likely to be £90m-£100m, £50m in transfer amortisation, so probably looking nearer £75m in sales, with no real opportunity to reinvest that, it's just to avoid a points deduction.

 

[Robertson]

We could of course try and do a Leicester. Probably not advisable though.

Anyway, eight games to go - we might win a few and stay up!!

 

[Gyros Peter]

We could of course try and do a Leicester. Probably not advisable though.

Anyway, eight games to go - we might win a few and stay up!!

Or even draw a few and get the same outcome. Come on you f***ing reds, you simply have to do this. Step up!

 

[Robertson]

Or even draw a few and get the same outcome. Come on you f***ing reds, you simply have to do this. Step up!

I reckon every game from now on will be a “must win”, until at some point one really will be a must win, and then we’ll either win it or we won’t. Then we might even stay up anyway.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

We could of course try and do a Leicester. Probably not advisable though.

I suspect if we did get relegated then our strategy for the first season in the Championship would be to retain our squad and potentially even go on a mini spending spree.

Intention being may as well do everything we can to secure PL revenue the following year, even if that came with a points deduction and likely relegation, we'd still just be back in the Championship again, with more money in the bank, and probably a better squad.

The club knowing a points deduction and likely re-relegation might even plan for that when squad building rather than trying to squad build with ridiculous expectations of finishing in the top half.

 

[Gyros Peter]

I reckon every game from now on will be a “must win”, until at some point one really will be a must win, and then we’ll either win it or we won’t. Then we might even stay up anyway.

I've got a feeling we muddle some draws and win at Everton away.

 

[Malwood]

If we go down I think we'll sell MGW, Murillo, Sangare, Neco and CHO. Don't see how that fails to bring enough income.

 

[Captain Sinister]

If we go down I think we'll sell MGW, Murillo, Sangare, Neco and CHO. Don't see how that fails to bring enough income.

MGW: Cost £32m; resale £20m, loss £12m
Murillo: cost £12m; resale £25m profit £13m
Sangare: cost £35m; Resale £10m, Loss £25m
Neco: cost £17m; resale £20m, Profit £3m
CHO: cost £3m; Resale £10m, Profit £7m

Net Loss: -£14m

We have to keep Sangare.

 

[DB1702]

Kieran Maguire did a short piece on Forest Focus he suggested even if we were relegated it would not be the end of the world in the relation to our finances. That’s made me feel a little bit better should the worst happen.

We have 8 games left my mindset if to focus on staying in this league. I just hope the players can find a way to get the results needed.


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[MaxiRobriguez]

MGW: Cost £32m; resale £20m, loss £12m
Murillo: cost £12m; resale £25m profit £13m
Sangare: cost £35m; Resale £10m, Loss £25m
Neco: cost £17m; resale £20m, Profit £3m
CHO: cost £3m; Resale £10m, Profit £7m

Net Loss: -£14m

We have to keep Sangare.

We'd get £30m for MGW and Murillo minimum. Probably that for CHO as well given he's still got a reputation beyond his season at forest.

But do agree Sangare won't go anywhere.

 

[derbyshirered]

Tuesday:
Forest and Burnley draw,the rest lose.

 

[Hungry Horace]

MGW: Cost £32m; resale £40m, profit £8m
Murillo: cost £12m; resale £35m profit £23m
Sangare: cost £35m; Resale £35m, Loss £0m
Neco: cost £17m; resale £30m, Profit £13m
CHO: cost £3m; Resale £25m, Profit £22m

Net profit: £66m


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[redforest]

MGW: Cost £32m; resale £40m, profit £8m
Murillo: cost £12m; resale £35m profit £23m
Sangare: cost £35m; Resale £35m, Loss £0m
Neco: cost £17m; resale £30m, Profit £13m
CHO: cost £3m; Resale £25m, Profit £22m

Net profit: £66m


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Your cup is definitely half full sir, however we won’t need to sell any as we’ll stay up. Everton, Sheffield United and Burnley away will be crucial, but I see us winning all 3

 

[football post]

If we do stay up can we please still sell them and get some better ones in?
This lot aren't actually very good.

 

[Captain Sinister]

We'd get £30m for MGW and Murillo minimum. Probably that for CHO as well given he's still got a reputation beyond his season at forest.

But do agree Sangare won't go anywhere.

2 factors will conspire against your valuations, in my opinion:
1 The market has fallen back from the excesses of the Saudi recruitment, and since the imposition of FFP penalties on every club bar the rich evil bastards;
2 We will be FORCED sellers, i.e. it will be a buyers market, and the richevil bastards will take great joy in working as a concert party to depress the sales value for us bu not bidding on the same assets.
And, yes: we will be stuck with Sangare.
And we might find Origi's loan contract had an obligation to buy if he played more than 3 games!
Let's not shy away from understanding: we are a total basket case off the field, on the field and, like Millwall everyone hates us.

 

[Bonfy177]

MGW: Cost £32m; resale £20m, loss £12m
Murillo: cost £12m; resale £25m profit £13m
Sangare: cost £35m; Resale £10m, Loss £25m
Neco: cost £17m; resale £20m, Profit £3m
CHO: cost £3m; Resale £10m, Profit £7m

Net Loss: -£14m

We have to keep Sangare.

this cheered me reet up Captain……

 

[Bonfy177]

2 factors will conspire against your valuations, in my opinion:
1 The market has fallen back from the excesses of the Saudi recruitment, and since the imposition of FFP penalties on every club bar the rich evil bastards;
2 We will be FORCED sellers, i.e. it will be a buyers market, and the richevil bastards will take great joy in working as a concert party to depress the sales value for us bu not bidding on the same assets.
And, yes: we will be stuck with Sangare.
And we might find Origi's loan contract had an obligation to buy if he played more than 3 games!
Let's not shy away from understanding: we are a total basket case off the field, on the field and, like Millwall everyone hates us.

Can we not just yank the price of season tickets reet up in the lower BC stand to offset the difference?

 

[Hungry Horace]

Your cup is definitely half full sir, however we won’t need to sell any as we’ll stay up. Everton, Sheffield United and Burnley away will be crucial, but I see us winning all 3

That’s a very full cup!

The numbers were more an example of plucking figures out of thin air than anything else based on the original post of “sales”.


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[Gyros Peter]

Imaginary firesale aside it's a good time to point out we are up to the heady heights of 15th in the form table, with all of those you'd want to be below us.

Just need to keep it that way...

 

[Robertson]

MGW: Cost £32m; resale £20m, loss £12m
Murillo: cost £12m; resale £25m profit £13m
Sangare: cost £35m; Resale £10m, Loss £25m
Neco: cost £17m; resale £20m, Profit £3m
CHO: cost £3m; Resale £10m, Profit £7m

Net Loss: -£14m

We have to keep Sangare.

Not quite how it works though because of the amortisation thing. We’ll already have accounted for around half of MGW and Williams fees if they’re on four year contracts by the start of July.

So we’d need > £16m for MGW to see a profit in the accounts for him next year. But I think we’d get quite a bit more anyway.