The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

[TrickiestTree]

I dont get the people using our past away form to say we'll lose our away games, but then using Luton's home form (which is almost as bad as our away form) to say they'll go basically unbeaten? We're playing 3 of the 4 worst home sides in the league in our next 5 games, we're not down, we're not favourites to go down and we're not going to go down.

I get we look at things through Forest doomer tinted glasses, but I think I posted this exact same message last year when people were posting that Leicester, Leeds or even Southampton were about to go on 5 game winning streaks to end the season. Luton are below us because they're worse than us. We've played 4 teams in the bottom 8 away from home, and we've drawn 3 and only lost to Brentford because of a BS cheated goal.

We should be expecting draws at the very least, plus maybe a point back from the deduction and better goal difference, and can anyone really see Luton getting 4 points more than us in the next 5 games? I know I can't. If we draw 2 win 1 we're safe. If we win 2 lose 1 we're safe. That's totally ignoring the home games, where we could defo get at least 1 point from Chelsea and who knows vs City.

 

[Redemption]

I dont get the people using our past away form to say we'll lose our away games, but then using Luton's home form (which is almost as bad as our away form) to say they'll go basically unbeaten?

Best of luck getting an answer to this evergreen paradox.

 

[Berkshire Red]

I dont get the people using our past away form to say we'll lose our away games, but then using Luton's home form (which is almost as bad as our away form) to say they'll go basically unbeaten? We're playing 3 of the 4 worst home sides in the league in our next 5 games, we're not down, we're not favourites to go down and we're not going to go down.

There's quite a few who'd have you believe that we're as bad as that D*rby side and that Luton are going to turn into prime Barcelona.

A year ago we welcomed back Taiwo and others from injury. This time Luton are struggling big time.

 

[Est.1865]

We’ll need to beat Chelsea at home IMO. Much like the Arsenal game last season.

 

[Cloughie1975]

I dont get the people using our past away form to say we'll lose our away games, but then using Luton's home form (which is almost as bad as our away form) to say they'll go basically unbeaten? We're playing 3 of the 4 worst home sides in the league in our next 5 games, we're not down, we're not favourites to go down and we're not going to go down.

I get we look at things through Forest doomer tinted glasses, but I think I posted this exact same message last year when people were posting that Leicester, Leeds or even Southampton were about to go on 5 game winning streaks to end the season. Luton are below us because they're worse than us. We've played 4 teams in the bottom 8 away from home, and we've drawn 3 and only lost to Brentford because of a BS cheated goal.

We should be expecting draws at the very least, plus maybe a point back from the deduction and better goal difference, and can anyone really see Luton getting 4 points more than us in the next 5 games? I know I can't. If we draw 2 win 1 we're safe. If we win 2 lose 1 we're safe. That's totally ignoring the home games, where we could defo get at least 1 point from Chelsea and who knows vs City.

I admire your bullish assessment but I reckon it’s too close to call-there’s as much chance of Luton winning a couple of their home games as there is of Forest winning two away matches in their remaining fixtures.
Toss of a coin time,I think.

 

[TrickiestTree]

I admire your bullish assessment but I reckon it’s too close to call-there’s as much chance of Luton winning a couple of their home games as there is of Forest winning two away matches in their remaining fixtures.
Toss of a coin time,I think.

I understand the view, but they've won 4 of their last 16 home games and we have a 1pt lead + better gd. They need 3pts more than us in the last 5 games, maybe even 4 if the appeal goes well. If we cant get at least 1 win from Everton, Sheff Utd and Burnley we deserve to go down, but even 3 draws mean they'll probably need to get 9 or 10pts from 5 games. That's the same PPG that Aston Villa are qualifying for the UCL with, coming from Luton who have not actually won 2 in 5 at any point this season.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

I understand the view, but they've won 4 of their last 16 home games and we have a 1pt lead + better gd. They need 3pts more than us in the last 5 games, maybe even 4 if the appeal goes well. If we cant get at least 1 win from Everton, Sheff Utd and Burnley we deserve to go down, but even 3 draws mean they'll probably need to get 9 or 10pts from 5 games. That's the same PPG that Aston Villa are qualifying for the UCL with, coming from Luton who have not actually won 2 in 5 at any point this season.

End of season throws up surprises due to number of factors.

Leicester took 9 from their last 6 last year, and before that run of form they'd taken one point from 9.

We all know what Forest did.

Extrapolation season form is a reasonable base base to work with but range of PPG in final few games is much wider than earlier fixtures.

 

[Cloughie1975]

I understand the view, but they've won 4 of their last 16 home games and we have a 1pt lead + better gd. They need 3pts more than us in the last 5 games, maybe even 4 if the appeal goes well. If we cant get at least 1 win from Everton, Sheff Utd and Burnley we deserve to go down, but even 3 draws mean they'll probably need to get 9 or 10pts from 5 games. That's borderline European form from Luton, who have not actually won 2 in 5 at any point this season.

They only need 2 more points than us in the remaining games to finish above us.
3 draws from Everton,Sheffield United and Burnley would need they require 5 more points (unless we
get something against Chelsea or miraculously don’t succumb against Manchester City).
All subject to our appeal of course-which I’m not holding my breath on.

 

[RedHelly]

Palace beat Scouse scum so how are we supposed to predict anything?

 

[Thomas]

Palace beat Scouse scum so how are we supposed to predict anything?

I guess if the team’s name is Luton you should be expecting them to win.


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[TrickiestTree]

They only need 2 more points than us in the remaining games to finish above us.

We have 8 better GD & 1 more point, so they need 3 to finish above us.
Ignoring their results, if we get 3 draws they'd need 6pts.
We're capable of more than this. Win 1 away game and its 8pts.
Point at Chelsea or from deduction being lowered and suddenly they need that 9/10pt

It's not the most unrealistic view surely? I cant see Luton winning more than 5pts anyway, so maybe i'm just deluded.

 

[Alf-engelos Mindminackers]

I understand the view, but they've won 4 of their last 16 home games and we have a 1pt lead + better gd. They need 3pts more than us in the last 5 games, maybe even 4 if the appeal goes well. If we cant get at least 1 win from Everton, Sheff Utd and Burnley we deserve to go down, but even 3 draws mean they'll probably need to get 9 or 10pts from 5 games. That's the same PPG that Aston Villa are qualifying for the UCL with, coming from Luton who have not actually won 2 in 5 at any point this season.

I think it's a coin flip whether we'll stay up or not, but I get the concern.

You say Luton have only won 4 of their last 16 home games in the Prem, but how many of our last 16 have we won away? 2 I think. And it's our away games which are against the weaker teams, like it's Luton who's home games are against the weaker teams.

As far as the run in goes, they've the easier one IMO. Doesn't mean it's easy, I certainly don't think they'll win all their home games, but do I expect them to get at least 1 win and nick some draws along the way? Yep. I think they'll push us right to the wire.

But I'm also confident we can beat a Chelsea side who will hopefully be on the beach when we play them too. Hopefully, with a few draws here and there and at least 1 away win, that will be enough.

 

[Cloughie1975]

@

We have 8 better GD & 1 more point, so they need 3 to finish above us.
Ignoring their results, if we get 3 draws they'd need 6pts.
We're capable of more than this. Win 1 away game and its 8pts.
Point at Chelsea or from deduction being lowered and suddenly they need that 9/10pt

It's not the most unrealistic view surely? I cant see Luton winning more than 5pts anyway, so maybe i'm just deluded.

 

[Cloughie1975]

We have 8 better GD & 1 more point, so they need 3 to finish above us.
Ignoring their results, if we get 3 draws they'd need 6pts.
We're capable of more than this. Win 1 away game and its 8pts.
Point at Chelsea or from deduction being lowered and suddenly they need that 9/10pt

It's not the most unrealistic view surely? I cant see Luton winning more than 5pts anyway, so maybe i'm just deluded.

Really?
If we get say 5 more points (making 31) Luton would need 2 more points than that (making 32).
If we only get 3 draws (29 points) Luton would need 5 more points (making 30).
Goal difference is only worth a point in the event of the sides finishing level on points.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

We have 8 better GD & 1 more point, so they need 3 to finish above us.

We lose to Man City by 4 or more and then it's possible goal difference gets overturned in the remaining games.

 

[Cloughie1975]

We lose to Man City by 4 or more and then it's possible goal difference gets overturned in the remaining games.

I’m 99% certain our goal difference will be better than Luton’s after the final game-but as I said above it’s
only relevant if we finish level on points (which is a possibility).
Besides,if our goal difference is ruined we’re probably down anyway.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

Let's be honest, no-one knows what the f*** is going to happen

It's gonna be a bumpy old ride!!

 

[Captain Sinister]

Forest Appeal to be heard week commencing 22nd april.
I predict all 4 points will be given back to us, the EPL will apologise for trying to f*** us over, and the rest of the Division applaud us.
Oh, and Linnekar states publicly he has always supported Forest and only pretended to like Leicester because some big lads at school threatened to beat him up if he didn't say he was a Leicester fan.

 

[Notcher]

Burnley also hasn’t been the best of hunting grounds for Forest over the years and this lot will probably go to jelly under any pressure,expectation and responsibility-but I’d still rather
be in the box seat.

Slightly off topic but wasn't it a turf moor that one of our supporters was stabbed and killed a few years ago?

 

[Cloughie1975]

Forest Appeal to be heard week commencing 22nd april.
I predict all 4 points will be given back to us, the EPL will apologise for trying to f*** us over, and the rest of the Division applaud us.
Oh, and Linnekar states publicly he has always supported Forest and only pretended to like Leicester because some big lads at school threatened to beat him up if he didn't say he was a Leicester fan.

How’s the diet and non drinking regime going,Captain?

 

[Cloughie1975]

Slightly off topic but wasn't it a turf moor that one of our supporters was stabbed and killed a few years ago?

Not sure-but I vaguely remember it.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

Forest Appeal to be heard week commencing 22nd april.
I predict all 4 points will be given back to us, the EPL will apologise for trying to f*** us over, and the rest of the Division applaud us.
Oh, and Linnekar states publicly he has always supported Forest and only pretended to like Leicester because some big lads at school threatened to beat him up if he didn't say he was a Leicester fan.

Not only will they give us all our points back but I reckon they'll award us a few bonus points as an apology and for having a funky badge

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Slightly off topic but wasn't it a turf moor that one of our supporters was stabbed and killed a few years ago?

Yes.

 

[Cloughie1975]

Yes.

What year was it?

 

[Notcher]

Yes.

Cheers. It's been about 12 years since I've been to Turf Moor. I wonder if it gives any further animosity to our away section given what happened?