Rockabilly
GAFF LAD. "Open your knees and feel the breeze"
I agree Cap'n, but it's points deduction thingy that bothers me.
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The Relegation Dogfight 23/24
- Thread starter UnfinishedBusiness99
- Start date
MaxiRobriguez
Bob McKinlay
Bournemouth are safe. They only really need a couple of wins from 13 remaining games - that'll take them to 34 points, be enough.
If we get a six point deduction we're only five ahead of Burnley. I don't think they will finish above us regardless but there's a bigger statistical likelihood of that happening than Luton, Everton, Brentford, Palace and Forest all clearing 34 points to relegate Bournemouth.
I think with probably a 90% confidence that the relegation run-in will be between Forest, Everton and Luton. Sheff Utd and Burnley will be down with games to spare, Brentford and Palace like Bournemouth will win a couple more games each to take them to mid-30s, so by time you add in any future points deduction for Forest and Everton then it's too much of a hurdle to ask either club to finish above that.
Our biggest hope for survival is Luton to continue being shit. They play Palace next then Bournemouth - personally I hope Palace and Bournemouth win both of those games and we simply forget about either being a prospect for relegation and we focus on just needing to finish above Luton. If that happens Forest go into that game vs Luton with Luton on a terrible run, and after Forest Luton then have Arsenal and Spurs.
With a bit of luck, we could be 4 points clear of Luton at the end of the month having had a six point deduction already applied:
- Luton lose to Palace, Bournemouth and Forest.
- Forest lose to Brighton, beat Luton, beat Palace.
If the points deduction is only 3 then that would put us 7 clear and at that point you'd probably say Forest are almost there.
If we get a six point deduction we're only five ahead of Burnley. I don't think they will finish above us regardless but there's a bigger statistical likelihood of that happening than Luton, Everton, Brentford, Palace and Forest all clearing 34 points to relegate Bournemouth.
I think with probably a 90% confidence that the relegation run-in will be between Forest, Everton and Luton. Sheff Utd and Burnley will be down with games to spare, Brentford and Palace like Bournemouth will win a couple more games each to take them to mid-30s, so by time you add in any future points deduction for Forest and Everton then it's too much of a hurdle to ask either club to finish above that.
Our biggest hope for survival is Luton to continue being shit. They play Palace next then Bournemouth - personally I hope Palace and Bournemouth win both of those games and we simply forget about either being a prospect for relegation and we focus on just needing to finish above Luton. If that happens Forest go into that game vs Luton with Luton on a terrible run, and after Forest Luton then have Arsenal and Spurs.
With a bit of luck, we could be 4 points clear of Luton at the end of the month having had a six point deduction already applied:
- Luton lose to Palace, Bournemouth and Forest.
- Forest lose to Brighton, beat Luton, beat Palace.
If the points deduction is only 3 then that would put us 7 clear and at that point you'd probably say Forest are almost there.
Captain Sinister
Senior doom Monger
It's too late to worry about that.
If we don't get as many points as we can, we'll be down even before the points deduction.
HappyHappyJoyJoy
Viv Anderson
Yep, some good drubbings for Luton are the order of the day.
You have to admire their never-say-die spirit but that's 5 defeats in a row in all competitions for them, even if they have run some big teams close.
And 4 of those 5 were at home, perhaps their bubble is bursting?
Long may it continue
Trents
John Robertson
Next round of matches sees the others play before us.
Everton at Man Utd in the early KO. Utd win likely
Luton are at Palace. Hopefully still some new manager bounce at home.
Brentford will likely lose at Arsenal
Hoping we head into Sunday without much damage done there.
Everton at Man Utd in the early KO. Utd win likely
Luton are at Palace. Hopefully still some new manager bounce at home.
Brentford will likely lose at Arsenal
Hoping we head into Sunday without much damage done there.
ARedChester
First Team Squad
Luton are conceding goals quite easily, but have a never say die attitude. I think they will unfortunately beat Palace.
Our game will be hard, but I expect us to win.
Our game will be hard, but I expect us to win.
Project Zeus
Steve Chettle
I still think we're going to stay up, but it isn't going to be pretty.
I'm expected a 6 point deduction, and a spell in the relegation zone before we claw our way back out to finish in 17th.
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I'm expected a 6 point deduction, and a spell in the relegation zone before we claw our way back out to finish in 17th.
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Colh
Stuart Pearce
Since it was leaked that we are likely to lose points, the life form sucked out of the club. We can only survive with a siege mentality, and Steve Cooper was the best man for that job I’m afraid.
Does Nuno play more attractive football? Yes
Is Nuno more equipped to get the crowd and City behind him? No
Complete misjudgment by the owner on my view and he should have waited until the summer
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Does Nuno play more attractive football? Yes
Is Nuno more equipped to get the crowd and City behind him? No
Complete misjudgment by the owner on my view and he should have waited until the summer
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Trents
John Robertson
We are looking more like scoring now than we ever did under Coops. I still think the switch was correct.
MaxiRobriguez
Bob McKinlay
Atmosphere was non existent at times yesterday, you could hear a pin drop.
Last season I felt like the CG kept us above water, this season it'll have no bearing on where we finish whatsoever.
Unfortunately was one of the things I thought would happen if expectations were ramped up and Cooper was binned. Got to now make sure the quality sees us stay up.
Colh
Stuart Pearce
Yes we are but that’s not translating into points, and we are now in danger close mode. We have to fight for survival and cooper, in my view, was better equipped to galvanise the City.
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Raymondo Ponte'
It's all about mid-table...
I'm absolutely positive of this...
It's going down to the WIRE.
Strap yasens in.
It's going down to the WIRE.
Strap yasens in.
Captain Sinister
Senior doom Monger
I think we will need a win last day at Burnley
Mr. Blonde
Jack Burkitt
Worse places to need a win, they're dreadful
Raymondo Ponte'
It's all about mid-table...
Thuv orlus bin a thorn inuz side at their hovel.
andover red
Geoff Thomas
Bournemouth play most of the teams in the mix with us, so better that they hit some form and beat everyone else.
And as for the atmosphere, it's been shit all season not just since SC left.
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And as for the atmosphere, it's been shit all season not just since SC left.
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Cloughie1975
John Robertson
Sky bet relegation odds tonight-
Sheffield United-not listed
Burnley-1/25
Luton-1/2
Forest-2/1
Everton-6/1
I’m personally surprised Luton and Forest are so far apart-also I can’t believe Everton are
out at 6/1.
Luton still have to play Forest and Everton at home whilst Forest must travel to Luton and Everton.
Sheffield United-not listed
Burnley-1/25
Luton-1/2
Forest-2/1
Everton-6/1
I’m personally surprised Luton and Forest are so far apart-also I can’t believe Everton are
out at 6/1.
Luton still have to play Forest and Everton at home whilst Forest must travel to Luton and Everton.
Cloughie1975
John Robertson
True,Ray-although I’ve visited Turf Moor 4 times and saw Forest win on the first 3 occasions-the
most memorable being a Tony Woodcock winner in 1977 as we headed for promotion under
Brian Clough.
I assumed I was a lucky charm until we lost in 2016.
Generally it’s not been a happy hunting ground for Forest though.
ARedChester
First Team Squad
I know nothing about betting. Luton and Forest look nearly the same. Both have 1s and 2s.
Monkman
Grenville Morris
This all day long. Couldn't have said it better myself.
SouthManchesterTree
Viv Anderson
We got all of our easiest fixtures out of the way early - and cocked them all up. We’re far more likely to go down than Everton IMO
Cloughie1975
John Robertson
I agree-but Everton’s form isn’t good and they still face another points deduction.
HappyHappyJoyJoy
Viv Anderson
It's important to note the results of this betting market will be based on the final position at the end of the season.
If any judgement is made after that, which will be the case if there is an appeal, that changes those positions then it won't affect the results of the betting market and isn't being factored into the current odds.
DizzyBala
Jack Armstrong
Forest logic though, we're more likely to get something from the harder games.
Red Dog in a Forest
Viv Anderson
It has translated into points. We’ve picked up ten since Nuno took over.
Cooper wasn’t improving us or picking up points. He was relegating us.
Had Cooper stayed we’d have less points on the table. His galvanisation skills would have been at rock bottom. More fans would’ve wanted him out and his standing would have fallen further.
We’d have then been hit with the news of a points reduction and the players (who would now fully love the low block) would remarkably start scoring and winning?!
Cooper has three tricks over Nuno:
1. He can do the bean dance.
2. He does better interviews.
3. He galvanised the city (until we started losing every week).
Or Nuno:
1. Better football.
2. More goals.
3. Higher PPG average.
4. Rejuvenated Chris Wood.
5. Turned Tavares and Williams into consistent football players.
I loved Cooper, but thank god he left when he did. In hindsight, he should have left a lot earlier.