Welcome to the LTLF Forest Forum.
Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 51 to 75 of 88

Thread: Uche Ikpeazu

  1. #51
    Matchday Squad
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    New ollerton and trust me, it's no better than the old one
    Posts
    1,233

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    You just know he will sign for Boro, score 20 goals and get them promoted

    COYR

    Originally Posted by Carnero https://bit.ly/2LVWO8R
    Don't know how anyone can look at that squad and say "Forest will definitely be up there" like I've read from some on here!

    10th at best.

  2. # ADS
    Circuit advertisement
    Join Date
    Always
    Location
    Advertising world
    Posts
    Many

  3. #52
    oopsy daisy!
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    On a longship close by
    Posts
    20,316

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by MASE View Post
    Hughtons not averse to going direct & he wants a viable target to get on the end of the hoofball
    FTFY


  4. #53

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by BryanRoy View Post
    Built like a brick shithouse heavyweight boxer if I remember rightly in our game at Wycombe last season.

    We clearly looking for a big bastard up top.

    Cardiff got James Collins to add to Kieffer Moore.

    The one's doing the rounds seem to be.

    Charlie Wyke (Sunderland)
    Michael Smith (Rotherham)

    Can't say I have seen him much but been told about Luton's young Elijah Adebayo who at a good age had a good first season in the Championship and looks a physical number 9 who can hold it up (hopefully link play) and offer aerial ability.

    https://www.whoscored.com/Players/36...Elijah-Adebayo
    Agree with this re Adebayo. They signed him from Walsall, and against us you could see he was a big unit and good in the air, plus decent pace and dribbling ability. Guess he'd be a much pricier option though, plus not sure his goal record is that great.


  5. #54
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Wycombes top scorer and second top assister - and underperformed his xG by 0.54. Overpeformed on assists tho.

    Be interested to see how many goals he scored from corners, as Joe Jacobson had a really good set piece in him.
    How do you overperform on assists? Play a shitty ball and someone makes it better and scores? Seriously I don't know what it is supposed to mean.

    xG I do understand. And I understand it to be total bollox and the sooner its binned off the fucking better.

    Imo.

    And this isn't a dig at you btw

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  6. #55
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    How do you overperform on assists? Play a shitty ball and someone makes it better and scores? Seriously I don't know what it is supposed to mean.

    xG I do understand. And I understand it to be total bollox and the sooner its binned off the fucking better.

    Imo.

    And this isn't a dig at you btw

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Iím a little hazy on the specifics of xA, but he has played the ball to another player and given them a low chance of scoring, but that player has scored anyway. Hence overperformed the xA.

    xG is a great tool but itís become a catch all phrase for Ďusing data to predict and/or assist in football tactics, recruitment and coachingí. It wonít be binned off any time soon


  7. #56
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Iím a little hazy on the specifics of xA, but he has played the ball to another player and given them a low chance of scoring, but that player has scored anyway. Hence overperformed the xA.

    xG is a great tool but itís become a catch all phrase for Ďusing data to predict and/or assist in football tactics, recruitment and coachingí. It wonít be binned off any time soon
    Thanks for clarifying. Is there an xG for teams rather than players pre match?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  8. #57
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    Thanks for clarifying. Is there an xG for teams rather than players pre match?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Yeah of course. Although I would suspect itís just the xG of the players added up rather than a view of the combined 11 in another lens.

    Just to be pendantic, please forgive me, xG is only applicable after the game. Itís not a science of guessing how many goals will be scored, more a method of understanding how many goals could/should have been scored based on the likelihood of each chance being converted formed by a mix of framework and guesswork. Thereís actually different xG stats depending on which data vendor you buy from, and even then within each vendor there will be different opinions by their analysts on what xG should apply to each situation.

    Theyíre usually pretty consistent but you might find one vendor rates a chance as 0.5xG where another will rate it 0.45xG. Over the course of a season that can add up.


  9. #58
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Yeah of course. Although I would suspect itís just the xG of the players added up rather than a view of the combined 11 in another lens.

    Just to be pendantic, please forgive me, xG is only applicable after the game. Itís not a science of guessing how many goals will be scored, more a method of understanding how many goals could/should have been scored based on the likelihood of each chance being converted formed by a mix of framework and guesswork. Thereís actually different xG stats depending on which data vendor you buy from, and even then within each vendor there will be different opinions by their analysts on what xG should apply to each situation.

    Theyíre usually pretty consistent but you might find one vendor rates a chance as 0.5xG where another will rate it 0.45xG. Over the course of a season that can add up.
    If the exact same chance falls to Lyle Taylor or Harry Kane is the xG still the same?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  10. #59
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    If the exact same chance falls to Lyle Taylor or Harry Kane is the xG still the same?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Yes - itís not the likelihood of that particular striker scoring it, itís the likelihood of the Ďaverage strikerí scoring it from a particular scenario. For example, there isnít a chance that could be considering 1 xG, because there will always be the nobhead that rounds the keeper and misses an open goal from 2 yards out.


  11. #60
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Yes - itís not the likelihood of that particular striker scoring it, itís the likelihood of the Ďaverage strikerí scoring it from a particular scenario. For example, there isnít a chance that could be considering 1 xG, because there will always be the nobhead that rounds the keeper and misses an open goal from 2 yards out.
    I understand where you're coming from but its not for me. If Lewis Grabban has the same xG as Matt Le Tiss scoring from a penno it can't be quite right

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  12. #61
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    I understand where you're coming from but its not for me. If Lewis Grabban has the same xG as Matt Le Tiss scoring from a penno it can't be quite right

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Well youíre looking at it slightly wrong. The striker doesnít Ďhaveí an xG, itís the xG of the Ďchanceí. So your point about Harry Kane and Lyle Taylor is a good one, unintentionally, as Harry Kane consistently overperforms the xG of the chances he takes - the mark of an excellent goal scorer, who scores more goals than the Ďaverage strikerí based on the likelihood of a goal coming from the chances he gets. I think Kane has scored 25 more goals than his xG would suggest the Ďaverage strikerí should have given the same situations.

    Lyle Taylorís xG - the amount of goals the average striker would have scored, given the same opportunities - was 7.6 last season, but he only scored 4. That suggests that Lyle either was incredibly unlucky or inept in front of goal as he should have scored 3-4 more goals than he did.

    You could read it that Lyle regularly gets himself into goalscoring situations and, given time, should start to score the goals that his xG suggests that he should. Given my eye test - a very important part of player analysis that definitely isnít going away - I would suggest that he lacked confidence and underperformed his xG because of that.


  13. #62
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Well youíre looking at it slightly wrong. The striker doesnít Ďhaveí an xG, itís the xG of the Ďchanceí. So your point about Harry Kane and Lyle Taylor is a good one, unintentionally, as Harry Kane consistently overperforms the xG of the chances he takes - the mark of an excellent goal scorer, who scores more goals than the Ďaverage strikerí based on the likelihood of a goal coming from the chances he gets. I think Kane has scored 25 more goals than his xG would suggest the Ďaverage strikerí should have given the same situations.

    Lyle Taylorís xG - the amount of goals the average striker would have scored, given the same opportunities - was 7.6 last season, but he only scored 4. That suggests that Lyle either was incredibly unlucky or inept in front of goal as he should have scored 3-4 more goals than he did.

    You could read it that Lyle regularly gets himself into goalscoring situations and, given time, should start to score the goals that his xG suggests that he should. Given my eye test - a very important part of player analysis that definitely isnít going away - I would suggest that he lacked confidence and underperformed his xG because of that.
    So are you saying that if a striker scores more than the perceived xG then they are better than a player that scores less from the perceived xG?

    So maybe sometimes a striker seems to only score a few but ain't had the chances? But his xG could be off the charts given more chances?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  14. #63
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    So are you saying that if a striker scores more than the perceived xG then they are better than a player that scores less from the perceived xG?

    So maybe sometimes a striker seems to only score a few but ain't had the chances? But his xG could be off the charts given more chances?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Now youíre getting to the part thatís so interesting for the football data crowd.

    Take the Lyle Taylor vs Harry Kane comparison again.

    HK 20/21 - 21 goals, 17xG
    LT 20/21 - 4 goals, 7.5xG

    You could reasonably predict that if HK got another 17 xG-worth of chances, he would score more than 17 goals. Conversely, if LT got another 7.5xG worth of chances it is unlikely he would score 7-8 goals based on his previous performance.

    However, if Lyle Taylor was the other way round, 4 xG but 8 goals for the sake of argument, you could argue that heís a prolific goal scorer starved of chances. Thatís the kind of insight that would require loads of further analysis, video watching etc to decide if that hypothesis is likely to be true or not. Hence why xG is a good signifier of whatís going on but not the be all and end all of analytics.


  15. #64
    Viv Anderson
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    15,034

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Now youíre getting to the part thatís so interesting for the football data crowd.

    Take the Lyle Taylor vs Harry Kane comparison again.

    HK 20/21 - 21 goals, 17xG
    LT 20/21 - 4 goals, 7.5xG

    You could reasonably predict that if HK got another 17 xG-worth of chances, he would score more than 17 goals. Conversely, if LT got another 7.5xG worth of chances it is unlikely he would score 7-8 goals based on his previous performance.

    However, if Lyle Taylor was the other way round, 4 xG but 8 goals for the sake of argument, you could argue that heís a prolific goal scorer starved of chances. Thatís the kind of insight that would require loads of further analysis, video watching etc to decide if that hypothesis is likely to be true or not. Hence why xG is a good signifier of whatís going on but not the be all and end all of analytics.
    I presume Grabban must have significantly outperformed his in the Lamouchi season, he seemed to get one chance a game and score it


  16. #65
    Viv Anderson
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Chester
    Posts
    10,915

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    I can’t believe anyone would dismiss stats as hoodoo. Stats are important as is intuition and football knowledge.

    Best thing I’ve heard in ages was Darragh McAnthony the Peterborough chairman when deciding who to sign in the summer to replace Toney. Out of all the options laid out to him from football people he went with Jordan Clarke Harris because he had the best exg and he knew with Smolzdics ability to create chances he’d get a bagful and that exactly happened. So you can’t dismiss stats sometimes they are extremely useful.

    Only thing to do though it’s also to remember to context. For example Joe Wirral he has been very good this past 2 seasons however we play a really defensive game. When Joe Worrall was at Rangers or Forest have gone chasing a goal and opened up he has looked useless. So Worrall for me jury is out on whether he is capable of playing in an attacking side. However if he payed for a Burnley he’d fit them down to a tee and probably end up better than tarkowski.


  17. #66
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,067

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by DapperDan View Post
    I presume Grabban must have significantly outperformed his in the Lamouchi season, he seemed to get one chance a game and score it
    Grabban (according to Infogol):

    20/21; goals - 6, xG - 10.00
    19/20; goals - 20, xG - 20.77
    18/19; goals - 16, xG - 16.97


  18. #67
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by EmmersonForest4 View Post
    I canít believe anyone would dismiss stats as hoodoo. Stats are important as is intuition and football knowledge.

    Best thing Iíve heard in ages was Darragh McAnthony the Peterborough chairman when deciding who to sign in the summer to replace Toney. Out of all the options laid out to him from football people he went with Jordan Clarke Harris because he had the best exg and he knew with Smolzdics ability to create chances heíd get a bagful and that exactly happened. So you canít dismiss stats sometimes they are extremely useful.

    Only thing to do though itís also to remember to context. For example Joe Wirral he has been very good this past 2 seasons however we play a really defensive game. When Joe Worrall was at Rangers or Forest have gone chasing a goal and opened up he has looked useless. So Worrall for me jury is out on whether he is capable of playing in an attacking side. However if he payed for a Burnley heíd fit them down to a tee and probably end up better than tarkowski.
    You said Samba was shit despite his stats saying he was awesome did you not?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  19. #68
    Ian Storey-Moore
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    preston
    Posts
    3,744

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt View Post
    Now youíre getting to the part thatís so interesting for the football data crowd.

    Take the Lyle Taylor vs Harry Kane comparison again.

    HK 20/21 - 21 goals, 17xG
    LT 20/21 - 4 goals, 7.5xG

    You could reasonably predict that if HK got another 17 xG-worth of chances, he would score more than 17 goals. Conversely, if LT got another 7.5xG worth of chances it is unlikely he would score 7-8 goals based on his previous performance.

    However, if Lyle Taylor was the other way round, 4 xG but 8 goals for the sake of argument, you could argue that heís a prolific goal scorer starved of chances. Thatís the kind of insight that would require loads of further analysis, video watching etc to decide if that hypothesis is likely to be true or not. Hence why xG is a good signifier of whatís going on but not the be all and end all of analytics.
    So the less x the xG the shitter you are?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk


  20. #69
    Bob McKinlay
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Lufthansa Business Lounge
    Posts
    98,212

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    So the less x the xG the shitter you are?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    In short, yes.

    (Shut up, nerds).

    ĄI believe in socialism because it seems more humanitarian, rather than every man for himself and 'I'm alright jack' and all those arsehole businessmen with all the loot. I made up my mind from viewing society from that angle. That's where I'm from and there's where I've made my decisions from. That's why I believe in socialismď

    ĄDon't forget you're alive. 'Cause sometimes when you walk around the city and you're in a bad mood, you can think, hey, wait a minute, we're alive! We don't know what the next second will bring and what a fantastic thing this is. This can get easily forgotten in the routine of life, and that's something I'm trying to bring to my attention at all times. Don't forget you're alive. We're not dead, you know. This is the greatest thing.Ē

    ó Joe Strummer

  21. #70
    First Team
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    7,853

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    unless he cost 2m like ishmael miller or the only striker we sign , i have no issue with him especially if ch is going to stick with grabban who will never compete or challenge for the ball everytime the ball is in the air.


  22. #71
    Viv Anderson
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Chester
    Posts
    10,915

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    You said Samba was shit despite his stats saying he was awesome did you not?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Pure exaggeration here, my post also says stats are useful but not the be all end all. I didnt say he was shite just not as good as some people think and I havent said stats are the be all end all. So why are you talking in hyperbolies?


  23. #72
    Viv Anderson
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    12,947

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    I'm glad I'm too old to bother with xG. In my youth we just scored goals when the opportunity presented itself or we missed.

    No idea what xG means and, do you know, it doesn't affect my enjoyment of the game.


  24. #73
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by eugenboppboppbopp View Post
    So the less x the xG the shitter you are?

    Sent from my ELE-L09 using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by Strummer View Post
    In short, yes.

    (Shut up, nerds).
    Sorry Strums, not quite.

    The lower the xG, the less chances you get to score. Itís about the difference between your xG and goals scored which determines how shit or good you are.


  25. #74
    First Team
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Nottingham/Lincoln
    Posts
    9,358

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by It's Baggio View Post
    Grabban (according to Infogol):

    20/21; goals - 6, xG - 10.00
    19/20; goals - 20, xG - 20.77
    18/19; goals - 16, xG - 16.97
    Grabs ability to get himself consistently into situations with a high probability of scoring a goal - and then converting those chances, up until last season - is his best attribute IMO. Guys a born bagsman.


  26. #75
    EmmersonForest4 "Bellend"
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Mansfield
    Posts
    5,676

    Default Re: Uche Ikpeazu

    Quote Originally Posted by valspoodle View Post
    I'm glad I'm too old to bother with xG. In my youth we just scored goals when the opportunity presented itself or we missed.

    No idea what xG means and, do you know, it doesn't affect my enjoyment of the game.
    To be fair, nobody is really forcing stats or an analytical approach on the average fan. But stuff like xG and advanced stats are the core of the analytical approach the club appear to be adopting.

    In the NFL there is a company called PFF who do all the data driven stuff, and a lot of times it can fly in the face of what you actually see on the field, that is why there has to be some balance.


 

 

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •