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  1. #21876
    Grenville Morris
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by FBS View Post
    Saw this article the other day. Once again, seems to fit with what many of us have spoken about previously that we were very ill over winter 2019/2020.
    Hospital visits in China and internet searches about viruses increased dramatically in summer 2019 too.

    I'm pretty sure I got COVID in November 2019. I had to leave work at 2PM (it remains my only day off in 10 years) and got home went straight to bed, and woke up with a dry cough I couldn't shake for 2-3 weeks.

    30/09/2021: It's only 8 points to the play-offs. Doesn't matter if we're 20th having lost three times as many games as we've won so far. I fancy us now that Hughton's gone.

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  3. #21877
    Viv Anderson
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Was there a corresponding increase in pneumonia patients in hospitals across the world in late 2019 as well, though?

    Given how rapidly it spread once it went beyond China in February/March 2020, and how closely hospitalisations and deaths followed those trends, isn't it extremely unlikely that it was knocking around the East Midlands undetected 4 months before that?

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


  4. #21878
    Grenville Morris
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Project Zeus View Post
    Was there a corresponding increase in pneumonia patients in hospitals across the world in late 2019 as well, though?

    Given how rapidly it spread once it went beyond China in February/March 2020, and how closely hospitalisations and deaths followed those trends, isn't it extremely unlikely that it was knocking around the East Midlands undetected 4 months before that?

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    Difficult to learn anything from China because you just can't trust the data they present.

    But starting with one case and increasing the case rate by 30% daily, and accounting for a few people early-on-in-the-growth-rate dying, then you hit a million cases after two months.

    Around half of those won't show any symptoms, 50k will require hospital care and 10k dead, so it /feels/ right based on internet searches/procurement of PCR tests/hospital visits that Wuhan had at least two months of community spread before China announced it (if it was only one month the numbers would be more like 1,250 with symptoms, 150 requiring hospital care, 30 dead), and then locked down Wuhan a week or so later.

    It's potentially more difficult to model the UK/Europe because it's almost certain COVID actually started with multiple hotspots rather than just one like China, due to Chinese tourists visiting many different places in UK but their most popular place being London, which in itself is a transport hub. The very first confirmed COVID case in the UK I believe was in Nottingham, and chances of that actually being the first real case would be quite small I reckon.


  5. #21879
    Viv Anderson
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Barbus View Post
    I get ya and she is being hypocritical, but she was suspended from her job for several months over that, these fuckers are pretending they did nothing wrong when everyone knew at the time they were dithering and delaying, and their actions caused immeasurably more harm than hers.
    I agree but I want them questioned by someone with necessary integrity to do so

    She should've been sacked or made to report on the weather or summat


  6. #21880
    Viv Anderson
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MaxiRobriguez View Post
    Hospital visits in China and internet searches about viruses increased dramatically in summer 2019 too.

    I'm pretty sure I got COVID in November 2019. I had to leave work at 2PM (it remains my only day off in 10 years) and got home went straight to bed, and woke up with a dry cough I couldn't shake for 2-3 weeks.
    I’m convinced I had it January 2020. I too had a couple of days of work (my only in a decade) following three days weekend/ leave. I still felt bad when I went in and was drenching the bed in sweat every night for ages. I had been down south working for a week before Xmas and there were loads of Chinese in our hotel which is something I’d not even thought about until months later.


  7. #21881
    Grenville Morris
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Yeah my other symptom was being utterly drenched in sweat. I was a few months later diagnosed with an auto immune disease which can be triggered temporarily by viruses.

    No idea where I caught mine to be honest.


  8. #21882
    Viv Anderson
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Project Zeus View Post
    Was there a corresponding increase in pneumonia patients in hospitals across the world in late 2019 as well, though?

    Given how rapidly it spread once it went beyond China in February/March 2020, and how closely hospitalisations and deaths followed those trends, isn't it extremely unlikely that it was knocking around the East Midlands undetected 4 months before that?
    I have two friends of a similar age to me PZ (early-70s), who were both admitted to hospital in October and November 2019, diagnosed with a form of "pneumonia". Neither had previously suffered with chest/lung problems, and both are equally convinced that they'd contacted Covid.


  9. #21883
    The Foam Hand
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    A bit of a mess at one of the local schools this week. The kids that clicked to consent on the vaccine app couldn’t get their jabs because the app went down.
    One of my missus’s students that wants the vaccine said can’t you just phone my mum to check and they said no it’s got to be done through the app.
    What a joke.


  10. #21884
    Viv Anderson
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Project Zeus View Post
    Was there a corresponding increase in pneumonia patients in hospitals across the world in late 2019 as well, though?

    Given how rapidly it spread once it went beyond China in February/March 2020, and how closely hospitalisations and deaths followed those trends, isn't it extremely unlikely that it was knocking around the East Midlands undetected 4 months before that?

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
    My brother-in-law was hospitalised on Boxing Day with severe pneumonia. He recalls there being quite a few in the hospital with the same thing. Obviously passed off as pneumonia at that time.

    I saw him Christmas Day. By New Years Eve I felt like I had broken glass in my throat every time I swallowed. By 3rd Jan I was exhausted. Had a few days off work (I work from home). Every night I would lay down and cough my guts up. I coughed up deep yellow flem for about a week. I remember not feeling better till the end of January.

    I've told that story before but I think it bears repeating because like many of us on here who think we had it before it became common knowledge it seems more is coming out about it being in the world at least a few months before the great shutdown.

    I should add that my brother-in-law is immunocompromised. So last year he had to stay indoors for weeks. Then he went back to work. At Christmas he was going to work everyday in a van with other plumbers. They all tested positive except my bro-in-law. Which I think adds extra credence to his pneumonia being covid.


  11. #21885
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Yep December 2019 I had what a put down to as am awful cold. Sore throat, coughing like hell (but very dry) out of breath. 3 days I had off work then my usual 2 after. Still wasn't 100% going into work the following day and it must have taken about 2 months to shift the cough. We had a Chinese worker in the kitchen then too who spent a month back home before returning with a nasty cold. Didnt have a runny nose as I recall though.

    I've been ill again this week, went to a funeral on Monday, the next day I woke up with a bad throat and my nose was like a tap, I did a test and it was negative, rang close family I was with and one of my relatives had tested positive, I kept testing for 2 days but all negative thankfully. The sore throat dissapeared really quickly and I'm just coughing, sweating like a bastard and sleeping for a ridiculous amount of time for me.


  12. #21886
    Nigel Clough
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Some numbers in the UK today.

    45k new cases, 157 deaths, folks being admitted to hospital raising to 719 daily.

    No wonder the boss man has fled to sunnier climes.

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  13. #21887
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    I think a fair amount of it is coming from the schools. Which, if it doesn't spread massively into (vaccinated) parents etc, is not too much of a great deal considering that unlike a lot of countries we haven't been vaccinating kids (or not for very long anyway) and that the vast majority of stuff is open with pre-pandemic restrictions i.e. none.

    Provided people stay out of hospitals in levels less than the other times it's peaked (and in reality the cases are still staying around the same level, it's not growing out of control) then it will be fine. And let's not forget that if there's a ward with 20 people on it and they don't have covid and someone comes in with covid (be that another patient, staff member, or visitor) and they all get it, that's 20 extra "admissions" added, it doesn't mean 719 or however many people walked into hospital with covid that day.

    I still think what counts as a death is somewhat daft in many ways which has been mentioned on here before several times...


  14. #21888

    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    It is spreading from the children to their vaccinated parents and school staff.

    The new guidance for schools has pretty much ensured that this will happen - this is where the problem lies (and not in the vaccination of children).

    It is only going to get worse.

    I still think what counts as a death is somewhat daft in many ways which has been mentioned on here before several times...
    It's still death, no matter how you categorise it.


  15. #21889
    Wally Ardron
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by FBS View Post
    I've told that story before but I think it bears repeating because like many of us on here who think we had it before it became common knowledge it seems more is coming out about it being in the world at least a few months before the great shutdown.
    Early December 2019 for me. I assume that it was the flu as I kept forgetting to book my flu jab (I'd had it every year since 2002), and then, taking on board what an anti-vaxer had told me the previous year, decided not to bother having it. It gave me a realisation that those heavy colds I used to get for which mu mum would write a note for school stating that I had the flu, were nothing of the sort amd were only 'heavy colds'. I slept 22 hours one day and 18 the following day. But could it have been covid if it was indeed around then? Quite possibly yes. I've kept to all the rules and then some since the start of the first lockdown, was quite obsessive about it, even during the summer of 2020 when many got really relaxed about it, and my kids have been the same. But as soon as we relaxed our cautiousness when we went on holiday at the end of July, all three kids caught covid. Despite this, and then mixing with thousands at football, I didn't get the slightest of symptoms. I've put this down as the effectiveness of being jabbed twice. But maybe there's also an element of immunity built up by having already had covid if it was around as early as December 2019. Then again, my partner also experienced no symptoms in the Summer when the kids had it, and she didn't have the flu when I had it. So who knows ? I don't suppose I ever will.


  16. #21890
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Wolfgang Schnell BSc. PhD. View Post
    It is spreading from the children to their vaccinated parents and school staff.

    The new guidance for schools has pretty much ensured that this will happen - this is where the problem lies (and not in the vaccination of children).

    It is only going to get worse.
    The heat map on the Government website would support this. Certainly since the start of September the colours for the 20-30 age group and over 45s has dropped off but the other age groups haven't - 15-19 stayed dark throughout, and the younger age groups tailed off at the end of July and increased again. Though the over 50 groups never really went higher which is showing the vaccine worked for them.

    It's likely parents have been vaccinated but if they haven't then that makes it much more risky for them and also that parents of school age kids are unlikely to be under 30 or over about 45-50 and you'd also expect teachers to be in a similar age bracket.

    It's obvious there's spread in schools (this has been obvious from the start of the pandemic) and it's probably the plan now that they just intend to let it run its course now every adult has been offered two doses of a vaccine. Though what we're likely to be seeing now is the reduced effectiveness of the vaccine at preventing spread and illness as opposed to hospitalisations and deaths (especially AZ which was used in probably most 40-65 year olds).

    I guess the most interesting thing would now be the nature of these positive tests - whether these people are mainly asymptomatic (which seems to be less with Delta even in kids), have more of a cold type illness, or more like flu, or if they're actually still getting more pneumonia type stuff, and exactly how much of the hospitalisations are people presenting to hospital from the community with covid. If this is getting high towards the latter end, then they will probably have to tighten something.
    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Wolfgang Schnell BSc. PhD. View Post
    It's still death, no matter how you categorise it.
    It is yes, but in terms of how the figure is reported, they are surely excluding a lot of deaths from people who have been ill with covid more than 28 days and others who didn't die of covid but did after testing positive in the last 28 days. However, it's an easy figure to work out because the criteria can't be interpreted, though the ONS statistics which do, seem to largely agree. But you're right it's still a death


  17. #21891
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread



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  18. #21892
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread



    Only up to 2nd October, but with the reports of some PCRs being reported back negative when they aren't, the ONS data might be more reliable...

    So you're seeing a slight uptick in primary age kids and 35-49 and a massive increase in secondary age kids. All other age groups are relatively stable.

    It's time to stop listening to anyone who says it doesn't spread in schools... But it's also vitally important they are kept open and education isn't disrupted.


  19. #21893

    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    All perfectly timed for half term to mix it all up a bit with their parents and (god help them) their grandparents.

    The weather at half term could be a decisive factor on how much this spreads.

    Oh, and the two week half term for some counties (like Notts), I wonder if that will be a good thing (slowing the spread amongst children) or a bad this (passing it on to more adults).


  20. #21894
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Wolfgang Schnell BSc. PhD. View Post
    All perfectly timed for half term to mix it all up a bit with their parents and (god help them) their grandparents.

    The weather at half term could be a decisive factor on how much this spreads.

    Oh, and the two week half term for some counties (like Notts), I wonder if that will be a good thing (slowing the spread amongst children) or a bad this (passing it on to more adults).
    Well, as with anything there are multiple factors at play.

    Assuming the vaccine holds, and indeed that grandparents may well be on 3rd jabs, the spill over to parents/grandparents is no more than would already have happened had they been in school.

    It will probably (assuming they are seeing less kids via social contact than in schools) lead to a reduced transmission for a bit especially since Delta seems to have a lower infectious period (2-3 not 4-5 days).

    It also depends how much it's seen to be a bad thing that they're getting it though, and that actually stopping this now, is delaying the inevitable end which is everyone having immunity or sufficiently high to stop it spreading. If the vaccines only give partial immunity it may even be better to allow people to get it, with the proviso that this approach doesn't cause more long term harm...

    But it's clear that if you're not vaccinated and haven't had the virus, with Delta variant you're likely to get it.


  21. #21895
    Nigel Clough
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Statto View Post

    But it's clear that if you're not vaccinated and haven't had the virus, with Delta variant you're likely to get it.
    ... If you live in the UK.

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  22. #21896
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Huxley View Post
    ... If you live in the UK.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk
    True point... But this raises the question why.

    Is it just that we let it in more than other countries as most European countries don't have colonial links with India, and people visiting? And that they could see it and took measures to stop it getting in as much?

    Is it because they have used AZ less in the middle-older age groups?

    Is it because other countries are ahead at vaccinating secondary age kids?


  23. #21897

    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    You have to wonder how much worse the current situation would be if we'd all followed to governments advice (get back to the office, you work-shy bastards) rather than companies choosing to look after the health of their staff by letting them continue to work at home.

    Obviously, the education sector has no choice but to follow the government guidance.

    Interesting article of this lunchtime's East Midlands Today about the number of schools in Notts that have already breached the safe limits.


  24. #21898
    Viv Anderson
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    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Statto View Post
    I think a fair amount of it is coming from the schools. Which, if it doesn't spread massively into (vaccinated) parents etc, is not too much of a great deal considering that unlike a lot of countries we haven't been vaccinating kids (or not for very long anyway) and that the vast majority of stuff is open with pre-pandemic restrictions i.e. none.

    Provided people stay out of hospitals in levels less than the other times it's peaked (and in reality the cases are still staying around the same level, it's not growing out of control) then it will be fine. And let's not forget that if there's a ward with 20 people on it and they don't have covid and someone comes in with covid (be that another patient, staff member, or visitor) and they all get it, that's 20 extra "admissions" added, it doesn't mean 719 or however many people walked into hospital with covid that day.

    I still think what counts as a death is somewhat daft in many ways which has been mentioned on here before several times...
    It clearly is a great deal if people are being hospitalised...

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  25. #21899

    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Wolfgang Schnell BSc. PhD. View Post
    You have to wonder how much worse the current situation would be if we'd all followed to governments advice (get back to the office, you work-shy bastards) rather than companies choosing to look after the health of their staff by letting them continue to work at home.

    Obviously, the education sector has no choice but to follow the government guidance.

    Interesting article of this lunchtime's East Midlands Today about the number of schools in Notts that have already breached the safe limits.
    Only one kind of person has time to watch lunchtime telly;

    Workshy, work from home bastards who probably had a nap after.


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  26. #21900

    Default Re: The CoronaVirus MEGA Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Hughton,we have a problem View Post
    Only one kind of person has time to watch lunchtime telly;

    Workshy, work from home bastards who probably had a nap after.


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    sorry, what was that ?


 

 

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