The Relegation Dogfight 25/26

D

DB1702

Geoff Thomas
I legit do not think we have any home games left that we cannot get something out of. The defensive unit appears to be finding its feet now we have the first choice back 4 back.

Think 14 points should see us safe that gets us to 40 points. That only works out as an average of a point a game. 4 wins and 2 draw and 8 defeats. In truth it we cannot muster that from the remaining games with the squad we have we will deserve to go down.

Today and the Arsenal game the team showed real fight and we showed a toughness to go to West Ham and Brentford and win. 4 points from the next 2 however they come would be a good return.
 
R

Red Dog in a Dinghy

Geoff Thomas
Final Table:

Spurs - 43
Leeds - 42
Forest - 41
Palace - 37
West Ham - 31
Burnley - 22
Wolves - 16

Spurs: 29-43 points
  • 3: Palace, Forest & Leeds at home.
  • 1: Wolves away.
  • Last 10: W2 D4 L4
  • PPG: 1.0 x 14 = 14
  • Next 3: Man U (A), Newcastle, Arsenal
  • Out: Bentacur, Kudus, Maddison, Porro & Richarlison
  • Competitions: Champions League
Leeds: 26-42 points
  • 3: Forest, Wolves & Burnley at home.
  • 3: Palace, Spurs & West Ham away.
  • Last 10: W2 D6 L2
  • PPG: 1.2 x 14 = 16.4
  • Next 3: Forest, Chelsea (A), Villa (A)
  • Competitions: FAC
Forest: 26-41 points
  • 2: Wolves, Burnley at home.
  • 2: Leeds & Spurs away.
  • Last 10: W3 D2 L5
  • PPG: 1.1 x 14 = 15.4
  • Next 3: Leeds (A), Wolves, Liverpool
  • Out: Wood / Sels / Williams
  • Competitions: Europa League
  • Sangare missing for 4 of those most recent losses - we average 1.5 points when he starts.
Palace: 29-37 points
  • 4: Burnley, Wolves, Leeds & West Ham at home.
  • 1: Spurs away.
  • Last 10: W1 D3 L6
  • PPG: 0.6 x 14 = 8.4
  • Next 3: Brighton (A), Burnley, Wolves
  • Out: Guehi & Mateta
  • Competitions: Europa Conference
W. Ham: 20-31 points
  • 2: Wolves & Leeds at home.
  • 2: Burnley & Palace away.
  • Last 10: W2 D2 L6
  • PPG: 0.8 x 14 = 11.2
  • Next 3: Burnley (A), Man U, Bournemouth
  • Out: Todibo (CB) - 3 game suspension / Paqueta (sold)
  • Competitions: FAC
 
donny

donny

Jack Armstrong
Red Dog in a Dinghy said:
Final Table:

Spurs - 43
Leeds - 42
Forest - 41
Palace - 37
West Ham - 31
Burnley - 22
Wolves - 16

Spurs: 29-43 points
  • 3: Palace, Forest & Leeds at home.
  • 1: Wolves away.
  • Last 10: W2 D4 L4
  • PPG: 1.0 x 14 = 14
  • Next 3: Man U (A), Newcastle, Arsenal
  • Out: Bentacur, Kudus, Maddison, Porro & Richarlison
  • Competitions: Champions League
Leeds: 26-42 points
  • 3: Forest, Wolves & Burnley at home.
  • 3: Palace, Spurs & West Ham away.
  • Last 10: W2 D6 L2
  • PPG: 1.2 x 14 = 16.4
  • Next 3: Forest, Chelsea (A), Villa (A)
  • Competitions: FAC
Forest: 26-41 points
  • 2: Wolves, Burnley at home.
  • 2: Leeds & Spurs away.
  • Last 10: W3 D2 L5
  • PPG: 1.1 x 14 = 15.4
  • Next 3: Leeds (A), Wolves, Liverpool
  • Out: Wood / Sels / Williams
  • Competitions: Europa League
  • Sangare missing for 4 of those most recent losses - we average 1.5 points when he starts.
Palace: 29-37 points
  • 4: Burnley, Wolves, Leeds & West Ham at home.
  • 1: Spurs away.
  • Last 10: W1 D3 L6
  • PPG: 0.6 x 14 = 8.4
  • Next 3: Brighton (A), Burnley, Wolves
  • Out: Guehi & Mateta
  • Competitions: Europa Conference
W. Ham: 20-31 points
  • 2: Wolves & Leeds at home.
  • 2: Burnley & Palace away.
  • Last 10: W2 D2 L6
  • PPG: 0.8 x 14 = 11.2
  • Next 3: Burnley (A), Man U, Bournemouth
  • Out: Todibo (CB) - 3 game suspension / Paqueta (sold)
  • Competitions: FAC
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Not too far off what I have.
I've got West Ham with 32 points, Leeds and ourselves with 42, Palace with 41, and Spurs with 42.. Think they just have enough to stay out of trouble, but, if they lose the next few, heads could drop...
 
G

GaryCrosbysStepOver

Geoff Thomas
Maddens me that we can’t bury these opportunities. We’ve given West Ham more encouragement than we should have. Without silly mistakes in games like yesterday, Fulham and Burnley we’d be looking fairly comfortable. Get it done Forest!
 
C

Cloughie1975

Stuart Pearce
GaryCrosbysStepOver said:
Maddens me that we can’t bury these opportunities. We’ve given West Ham more encouragement than we should have. Without silly mistakes in games like yesterday, Fulham and Burnley we’d be looking fairly comfortable. Get it done Forest!
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We can’t seem to pull away and have been rooted in the dangerous 4th from bottom spot for a while now.

I thought yesterday was a good point in the circumstances but we really needed 3.If we lose at Leeds on Friday
we may well be in the relegation battle until the end of the season (I’d take a point there though).
 
Statto

Statto

Free Kick Specialist
hannahd said:
Six points ahead is not a lot when the team below you is showing some form...
Click to expand...
To level on points we need to lose 2 matches when West Ham win theirs. If that doesn't generate the 8 goal swing in GD they'll need another point gain to pass us. In the other matches they need to equal our result.

They have won 5 all season and have 14 matches left.

In terms of current form in the last 6 they are W2 D1 L3, that's just over a point a game. So on that form they are likely to get 16 more this season putting them on 36.

We need 10 more points for that which is only .7 per game and last 6 ours is W2 D2 L2 which is 1.3 a game and that includes some of the straight losses. Our last 4 is 2 PPG.

Teams are at the bottom, Hannah, because they don't show form
 
Osiris

Osiris

Geoff Thomas
hannahd said:
Six points ahead is not a lot when the team below you is showing some form...
Click to expand...
They're not though are they? They won a couple in a row but that's still only two in the last thirteen games

People said the same a couple of seasons ago when Luton won two on the bounce but they were still awful and went down

In fact West Ham's stats after 24 games are almost identical to Luton's at the same point - same number of points scored (20), both won 5, drawn 5, lost 14, and WH have actually scored fewer and conceded more goals than Luton after 24 games so you could argue they are worse
 
MaxiRobriguez

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Osiris said:
They're not though are they? They won a couple in a row but that's still only two in the last thirteen games

People said the same a couple of seasons ago when Luton won two on the bounce but they were still awful and went down

In fact West Ham's stats after 24 games are almost identical to Luton's at the same point - same number of points scored (20), both won 5, drawn 5, lost 14, and WH have actually scored fewer and conceded more goals than Luton after 24 games so you could argue they are worse
Click to expand...

Agree but I think West Ham have the potential to improve their fortunes significantly more so than Luton did.

I wouldn't be comfortable in the slightest for example if someone with a crystal ball said we finished on 32 points again, whereas the season we were battling it out with Luton I was confident as I could be from Christmas that 30 would be enough.
 
chaospunx

chaospunx

Grenville Morris
Plus we are showing alot more consistency i havnt really been worried all season possibly only a bit last weekend after the braga horror show and them getting it down to 2 points we then went on to beat brentford and im back to positive we will be fine but id like the gap more so we can attack the europa league
 
Osiris

Osiris

Geoff Thomas
MaxiRobriguez said:
Agree but I think West Ham have the potential to improve their fortunes significantly more so than Luton did.

I wouldn't be comfortable in the slightest for example if someone with a crystal ball said we finished on 32 points again, whereas the season we were battling it out with Luton I was confident as I could be from Christmas that 30 would be enough.
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I agree Maxi, there's no way West Ham are scoring as few as 26 points, they have a better squad than Luton did and a better PL manager

Their big problem is they can't defend and concede goals left right and centre

If Nuno can sort that out I've no doubt their form will improve, I'm just not sure he can
 
H

hannahd

Viv Anderson
Statto said:
To level on points we need to lose 2 matches when West Ham win theirs. If that doesn't generate the 8 goal swing in GD they'll need another point gain to pass us. In the other matches they need to equal our result.

They have won 5 all season and have 14 matches left.

In terms of current form in the last 6 they are W2 D1 L3, that's just over a point a game. So on that form they are likely to get 16 more this season putting them on 36.

We need 10 more points for that which is only .7 per game and last 6 ours is W2 D2 L2 which is 1.3 a game and that includes some of the straight losses. Our last 4 is 2 PPG.

Teams are at the bottom, Hannah, because they don't show form
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But West Ham look like they will win a lot of games now, particularly at home.
 
H

hannahd

Viv Anderson
Osiris said:
They're not though are they? They won a couple in a row but that's still only two in the last thirteen games

People said the same a couple of seasons ago when Luton won two on the bounce but they were still awful and went down

In fact West Ham's stats after 24 games are almost identical to Luton's at the same point - same number of points scored (20), both won 5, drawn 5, lost 14, and WH have actually scored fewer and conceded more goals than Luton after 24 games so you could argue they are worse
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No way, West Ham are a lot better than Luton.
 
Baronvon

Baronvon

John Robertson
West Ham are looking a bit better, granted - but they just can't stop conceding goals.

If it wasn't for Areola they'd concede even more.

Still a long way to go and plenty of stuff can change, but I'd rather be six points ahead rather than six points behind. It's demoralising as much as anything else - West Ham won two games in a row, yet only ultimately gained one point.
 
B

bearwood red

First Team Squad
It is really hard to predict where the season goes from here. West Ham have looked a bit more threatening up front, but still can’t defend. Anyway, I think our objective should be putting at least one team between us and West Ham, just in case they do manage to put some results together.

On yesterday’s showing, Palace seem the most likely to be drawn in.
 
MaxiRobriguez

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Gaz1980 said:
West Ham are improving week by week so it's going to be close.

Ideally we keep a 6 points (plus GD) gap so it's a 2 game swing rather than one.
Click to expand...

That would be a three game swing...
 
Alf-engelos Mindminackers

Alf-engelos Mindminackers

The Artiste formally known as "w**ksy"
hannahd said:
it was at Chelsea, though.
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Osiris said:
They're not though are they? They won a couple in a row but that's still only two in the last thirteen games

People said the same a couple of seasons ago when Luton won two on the bounce but they were still awful and went down

In fact West Ham's stats after 24 games are almost identical to Luton's at the same point - same number of points scored (20), both won 5, drawn 5, lost 14, and WH have actually scored fewer and conceded more goals than Luton after 24 games so you could argue they are worse
Click to expand...
MaxiRobriguez said:
Agree but I think West Ham have the potential to improve their fortunes significantly more so than Luton did.

I wouldn't be comfortable in the slightest for example if someone with a crystal ball said we finished on 32 points again, whereas the season we were battling it out with Luton I was confident as I could be from Christmas that 30 would be enough.
Click to expand...
If Bowen is out for even any noteable period they are f**ked.

He's played most minutes out of any of their players this season, with 2151 min under his belt in the Prem, has 26 games under his belt with only 1 of them being in a cup c omp, and is their top goalscorer with 8 Prem goals.

Like I said months ago, if Forest wanted to guarantee safety, we'd have bought him this window. Without him West Ham are down.

So if he gets even a few minor knocks or burns out before season end, each game he misses sees Wet Sham drop to a Chamionship level team - where most Prem opposition take all points.

On paper I get why folk think they have the potential to improve, but odds wise in reality their hope lies too much on 1 man IMO
 
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