Run-ins / other clubs' games in hand...

[jerellis1]

I just posted something along these lines in another thread but I thought I'd expand on it in a new thread to see what others make of it. We've been looking at Barnsley as one of those clubs that we could theoretically catch, but their two games in hand have been something of an additional obstacle for us. But I have a sneaky feeling that the extra two games they have to play over the next three weeks could turn out to be their undoing...

Look at how Forest struggled recently when fatigue and injuries following a concentrated spell of games at weekends and in midweek took their toll. I think the same could well happen to Barnsley. Our run-in consists of five games; other than the Sheffield United game (which, let's face it, most of us would chalk up as a probable defeat anyway) all of our games are a week apart, giving BD time to get his players prepared and revived before every game. Barnsley, on the other hand, now have a hectic and potentially very draining seven-game run-in, six of which are to be played within the space of 18 days (7th - 25th April). On top of that, no fewer than FIVE of their seven remaining games are away, and they will have to face the likes of Sheffield United, in-form Watford, Swansea, Reading and Wolves...

Mark my words, Barnsley will drop this season, and probably well ahead of the final day. They may still be three points ahead of us tonight, but I don't see them picking up many more points between now and the end of the season. Incidentally, Derby are in a similar situation to Barnsley, with six games coming up for them within the space of 17 days, more of their remaining games being away than at home, and tricky opposition in the form of Cardiff, Wolves, Reading, Palace and in-form Watford away on the last day. They're only six points ahead of us at the moment - could be a different story a week from now though, after they've (hopefully) been spanked away from home by both Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday!! ray:

 

[birkin youth]

Mark my words, Barnsley will drop this season,

You should put money on it if you're confident. I never really bet on matters affecting Forest, but you seem certain. You know what the odds are?

 

[jerellis1]

Can we make it a sportsman's bet? :wink:

 

[birkin youth]

Nah I was just saying :nowink:

I reckon it will be Charlton and Southampton and then one of Forest, Norwich, Plymouth or Barnsley. Out of those 'others', I would think us, and Norwich, are more likely to be relegated :no:

Look where Barnsley are in the league, you'd probably get decent odds on them going down.

 

[BRF]

I just posted something along these lines in another thread but I thought I'd expand on it in a new thread to see what others make of it. We've been looking at Barnsley as one of those clubs that we could theoretically catch, but their two games in hand have been something of an additional obstacle for us. But I have a sneaky feeling that the extra two games they have to play over the next three weeks could turn out to be their undoing...

Look at how Forest struggled recently when fatigue and injuries following a concentrated spell of games at weekends and in midweek took their toll. I think the same could well happen to Barnsley. Our run-in consists of five games; other than the Sheffield United game (which, let's face it, most of us would chalk up as a probable defeat anyway) all of our games are a week apart, giving BD time to get his players prepared and revived before every game. Barnsley, on the other hand, now have a hectic and potentially very draining seven-game run-in, six of which are to be played within the space of 18 days (7th - 25th April). On top of that, no fewer than FIVE of their seven remaining games are away, and they will have to face the likes of Sheffield United, in-form Watford, Swansea, Reading and Wolves...

Mark my words, Barnsley will drop this season, and probably well ahead of the final day. They may still be three points ahead of us tonight, but I don't see them picking up many more points between now and the end of the season. Incidentally, Derby are in a similar situation to Barnsley, with six games coming up for them within the space of 17 days, more of their remaining games being away than at home, and tricky opposition in the form of Cardiff, Wolves, Reading, Palace and in-form Watford away on the last day. They're only six points ahead of us at the moment - could be a different story a week from now though, after they've (hopefully) been spanked away from home by both Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday!! ray:

Ok... good logic, but we only need five points realistically. A win and two draws, and we're not shit. We're not brilliant, but we've taken points in unexpected places this season and as I've always said, at the tail end of the season the form book goes out the window. Look at Plymouth, for example - by the time we play them I thoroughly expect them to be safe (they've already got 47 points). Coventry are already safe with nothing to play for, and they're not unbeatable. Don't underestimate us for the midweek game against Sheffield United - yes they're in form, but it's a derby game and anything can happen.

I don't expect us to beat everyone and take 21 points, but I do genuinely believe that we have the ability to take five points out of that twenty-one (of the form sides challenging for play-offs and promotion, there will always be jitters). As far as being down 'well ahead' of the final day, it is equally likely that we'll be safe well ahead of that day also. Nothing is nailed on.

Actually, from seeing Derby week before last, I wouldn't be surprised to see them biting their nails at all.

Now, as for Forest, there's eight points to collect from just fifteen. I happen to think that your side is capable of that run of promotion type form - but it's just as likely that it won't happen. What is more likely - Barnsley picking up five points out of twenty-one OR Forest putting together two points per game form? I actually think that you'll probably do it - I think you'll get beaten by Sheffield United, but them to one side, you may win all of your remaining games...

We know what we have to do, you know what you have to do, let's hope that another club has the end of season slump and we'll all be happy.

How is the injury to Tyson?

 

[uppertrentendred]

Looked quite bad..but a few days maximum they reckon. He should be back for Bristol City a week today.

Who have Norwich got next weekend?

 

[Super_horns]

Swansea away...

Good point gained btw..we'll try to help out in the next 3 games for you (Saints,Barnsley and Norwich)....but we're bound to mess up somewhere!

 

[thetfordred]

Ok... good logic, but we only need five points realistically. A win and two draws, and we're not s**t. We're not brilliant, but we've taken points in unexpected places this season and as I've always said, at the tail end of the season the form book goes out the window. Look at Plymouth, for example - by the time we play them I thoroughly expect them to be safe (they've already got 47 points). Coventry are already safe with nothing to play for, and they're not unbeatable. Don't underestimate us for the midweek game against Sheffield United - yes they're in form, but it's a derby game and anything can happen.

I don't expect us to beat everyone and take 21 points, but I do genuinely believe that we have the ability to take five points out of that twenty-one (of the form sides challenging for play-offs and promotion, there will always be jitters). As far as being down 'well ahead' of the final day, it is equally likely that we'll be safe well ahead of that day also. Nothing is nailed on.

Actually, from seeing Derby week before last, I wouldn't be surprised to see them biting their nails at all.

Now, as for Forest, there's eight points to collect from just fifteen. I happen to think that your side is capable of that run of promotion type form - but it's just as likely that it won't happen. What is more likely - Barnsley picking up five points out of twenty-one OR Forest putting together two points per game form? I actually think that you'll probably do it - I think you'll get beaten by Sheffield United, but them to one side, you may win all of your remaining games...

We know what we have to do, you know what you have to do, let's hope that another club has the end of season slump and we'll all be happy.

How is the injury to Tyson?

plymouth have got 46 points not 47 , could make all the difference.

 

[jerellis1]

Just thought I'd bump my own thread from Saturday in the wake of last night's results... looks like stage one of the "We'll Finish Above Barnsley" masterplan is now officially 'mission accomplished'! Six games left for them now, only one game in hand on us and they're away to Watford this weekend... I fancy we've a good chance of going level with them on points come Saturday night.

 

[Loughborough_red]

Talking to a few Barnsley fans at the weekend they are notoriously poor away from home, and they have an absolute shocker of a run in. I still have faith.


A win on saturday though is a must.

 

[Baronvon]

Isn't Barnsley's last game in hand on us against Wolves?

They're far from safe.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Only the teams that are mathematically safe are 'safe' at the moment, it really could go anyway.

How important could that away win at Reading be, which before the game most people were accepting as a loss...

 

[wemaybefamousagain]

Isn't Barnsley's last game in hand on us against Wolves?

They're far from safe.

Its Coventry away. Still not an easy game though.

 

[removed user]

debry losing woo

 

[jerellis1]

debry losing woo

3-0 to Cardiff now!! It's all coming together!!! ;D

 

[thetfordred]

3-0 to Cardiff now!! It's all coming together!!! ;D

i can see the sheep not winning again this season ! is it asking too much for them to get relegated and fester to continue to wobble and end up losing in the play-offs ? :nowink:

 

[Super_horns]

Derby do seem to have a tricky run in actually...Reading,Wolves,Palace and Sheff Wed plus us.

We need to win on Saturday to be certain as I can see you guys getting something against Bristol City this weekend and at Blackpool (is that who you have EM?)

 

[jerellis1]

4-0 now!!

 

[nffc red]

Derby do seem to have a tricky run in actually...Reading,Wolves,Palace and Sheff Wed plus us.

We need to win on Saturday to be certain as I can see you guys getting something against Bristol City this weekend and at Blackpool (is that who you have EM?)

Were at sheffield united on easter monday, blackpools the away game after that.

 

[earthworm]

This is an interesting thread, your that bullish with your predictions, it makes me feel like we'll stay up! Somebody read that post to BD and the gang!

 

[jerellis1]

So let's see... Wolves hammering Southampton tonight has wrapped up a very pleasing week in terms of other clubs in the relegation scrap dropping points and wasting games in hand. This time last week the Saints had a game in hand on us to potentially go above us - now we're the team with the game in hand on them (and they're still below us in the table)!



Tomorrow is now so, so important, given that we're unlikely to get much out of Sheffield United on Monday (especially now they've had a taste of that automatic promotion spot). IF we can beat Bristol City tomorrow then we should climb out of the drop zone for 48 hours at least, what with just-above-us Norwich away at Swansea (who still have an outside chance of sneaking into the play-offs). Norwich have Watford at home on Monday and I can see them winning that one, which would mean it would be 'as you were' if we lose to Sheffield United (as expected). Funnily enough, Barnsley have the exact same opposition as Norwich over the next two games - Watford and Swansea.

Of the other three teams no more than six points above us at the moment, Derby and Blackpool are both away tomorrow (to Sheffield Wednesday and Preston respectively) and Plymouth have Coventry at home. But look at their fixtures on Monday: Derby play Wolves, Blackpool play Reading and Plymouth are away to Birmingham!! So as long as we gain ground on one or two of them tomorrow, then even if we do get beaten by Sheffield United on Monday then with any luck it shouldn't be too damaging after all.

Of course, fascinating as all this is, the bottom line can be summed up in just five short words:

FOREST NEED THREE POINTS TOMORROW!!!

ray:

 

[Cooky]

Lovely summary, jerellis!

No one can argue it's going to be a boring end to the season, although i really hope final day is a nothing game as we are already safe by then! how good would that be, Forest with nothing to play for on the last day of the season, cheers and chants of "we are staying up, we are staying up!" ringing around Trentside ;D

We can but hope...

 

[jerellis1]

Optimistic as I am about our chances of survival, I'm still a bit worried we'll be going into the Southampton game not statistically safe yet. Finishing clear of Southampton themselves shouldn't be the problem; if we beat Bristol City today, then all we need to do is maintain the same form as Southampton for the next three games to be in a position where Southampton can't catch us even if they were to win at our place on the last day.

But to be officially safe from relegation going into the last day, then we need to not just move ahead of at least one of the teams above us, but be four points clear of them, all within the next four games. Norwich are our best bet there given that they're only a point ahead of us at the moment, but - even though I think it's possible for us to catch them - the likes of Derby and Blackpool would need to drop around nine or ten points each over the next four games (with us taking maximum points in the same period) for us to be out of their reach going into the last day.

Assuming Forest and Norwich's relative positions (i.e. us one point behind them) are unchanged come Monday (see my previous post) then it all comes down to the next two games after that - the 44th and 45th games of the season. We've got Coventry at home and Blackpool away; they've got Ipswich away and Reading at home. So we definitely have the better run-in. But get this - their game against Reading is to be played two days after our game against Blackpool, on Monday the 27th of April - so that could actually turn out to be the night our survival is confirmed! It's on Sky Sports too, so that could well be one for all your diaries...

So with any luck, it'll be Barnsley and Norwich fighting it out with one another for survival on the last day, while we sit in the sunshine and contemplate a better season in the Championship next year whilst commiserating with the tearful Saints fans who already know their fate. And we could still have something to play for on the last day - to finish above Derby!!

 

[jerellis1]

What a day!! And the results from elsewhere have just about fulfilled hopes / expectations. Admittedly it could have been very different if results everywhere had stayed as they were when they were at their worst for us (Norwich drawing, Barnsley winning and us losing, not to mention Derby, Blackpool and Plymouth all winning), but thankfully it's the score at the end of 90 minutes that counts, so my predict-a-thon continues to go from strength to strength...

I just hope I'm wrong about us swapping places with Norwich again by Monday night. But at least we can stay out of the drop zone even if we lose, as long as Norwich don't beat Watford.

Incidentally, those results for Plymouth, Derby and Blackpool have probably made everyone think they are all out of our reach now, but I still think we can catch one or two of them, even if we have to wait until the last game of the season to do so. Remember, we've still got to play Blackpool ourselves so we've every chance of overhauling them then, and Plymouth are up against Birmingham on Monday - can't see another 4-0 for them somehow...