Remaining fixtures predictor thread

[dbarraclough]

Right.
I'm thinking 85 points would see us automatically promoted. Another 39 points is 11 wins/ 6 draws/ 4 losses
Where are those points going to come from. This is my unbiased prediction


Reading H 3
QPR H 1
Sheep A 1
Wednesday H 3
Coventry A 3
Doncaster A 1
Sheff UTD H 3
Boro H 1
Leicester A 1
Swansea H 3
Preston A 1
Barnsley A 1
Posh H 3
Palace H 3
Newcastle A 1
Bristol A 0
Cardiff H 1
Ipswich H 1
Blackpool A 1
Plymouth H 3
Scunthorpe A 3

That makes 84 points. Tight!
I think towards the end a lot will depend on whether teams are already relegated or are battling for their lives. I predict Cardiff to be battling for a playoff spot making it hard for us and Ipswich battling for survival. Hopefully Plymouth and Posh will be buried by the time we play them. I predicted only 1 loss to a dirty Bristol team, and a lucky draw for the lucky, desperate sheep.
One too many draws may be the difference between 2nd and a comfortable 3rd spot.
The key isn't so much to remain unbeaten. It's getting 11 victories from the remaining 21.

 

[Seargant Reddog]

Reading H 3
QPR H 3
Sheep A 3
Wednesday H 1
Coventry A 1
Doncaster A 1
Sheff UTD H 3
Boro H 3
Leicester A 1
Swansea H 1
Preston A 1
Barnsley A 1
Posh H 3
Palace H 3
Newcastle A 1
Bristol A 3
Cardiff H 1
Ipswich H 1
Blackpool A 0
Plymouth H 3
Sc**thorpe A 1

not good at math but there my predictions :-*

 

[Ravi]

Too many draws there guys :wink:

 

[sebs]

84 points would easily be good enough for automatic.

here are the minimum points required each season ie the points 3rd place and 7th place got - what we would have to exceed

season automatic pts play-offs
2008/098074
2007/087570
2006/078474
2005/068167
2004/058570
2003/047971

 

[cole]

Reading H 3
QPR H 3
Sheep A 3
Wednesday H 3
Coventry A 3
Doncaster A 3
Sheff UTD H 1
Boro H 3
Leicester A 1
Swansea H 3
Preston A 1
Barnsley A 3
Posh H 3
Palace H 3
Newcastle A 1
Bristol A 1
Cardiff H 1
Ipswich H 3
Blackpool A 0
Plymouth H 3
Sc**thorpe A 3

Total = 48pts + 46pts = 94pts Champions

 

[Jonathan]

Reading H 3
QPR H 1
Sheep A 3
Wednesday H 3
Coventry A 1
Doncaster A 1
Sheff UTD H 3
Boro H 1
Leicester A 1
Swansea H 3
Preston A 1
Barnsley A 1
Posh H 3
Palace H 3
Newcastle A 0
Bristol A 1
Cardiff H 3
Ipswich H 1
Blackpool A 0
Plymouth H 3
Sc**thorpe A 3

I think that's 39 more points, but it's what I can see happening.

We'd finish on 88 points, which would easily be enough for automatic.

 

[dbarraclough]

That's 85 isn't Jonathon ???
Seems to me that our biggest danger is getting too many draws, a bit like we had at the start. I really can't see us losing more than a couple now so it's all about maintaining our current form and finishing teams off.

 

[PSR]

At present we have 46 points from 25 games - Average Points Tally = 1.84

46 Games at an average of 1.84 would = 84.64.

84/85 points is a possibility bearing in mind we have played all the teams to come once.

BD has seen them all now (first hand) so I see no reason to fear any of the fixtures right to the end of the season.

More wins - less draws with the odd loss - I could see us getting to around 90/92 points.

 

[Jonathan]

I thought we had 49 points now?

 

[winnits]

I thought we had 49 points now?

46, bit forward of you to be claiming the 3 points already from Pride Park

 

[Jonathan]

I don't know why I thought that then. Oh well. May as well be 49!

 

[Johnny Bravo]

Can anyone remember when we were laughing at the Derby predictions for the month of December?

I have a feeling they might do the same if they see this. We're playing well at the moment and we're 99% certain to have a bad run at some point (although I wouldn't like to speculate as to when it will come) and we'll lose a few games at some point. Reading what there is of this thread is making me worried about runaway expectations again.

 

[winnits]

I think some form of collapse is likely.

Although I don't think it really makes much difference what some fans predict on a message board - and frankly, they can laugh all they like - currently we're always likely to have more ammunition.

46 points I reckon is probably safe from relegation this season. Anything on top of this is a bonus

 

[dbarraclough]

I honestly think a bad run for us is a string of draws with the odd defeat- like August/early September. I don't see a prediction of 80-85 points as dreaming. In my original prediction i threw in quite a few disappointing draws for good measure.

I believe :

74-79 - A little pessimistic

80-85- About right

86 + - A bit OTT

 

[Johnny Bravo]

Yeah, I don't expect what anyone predicts to make a difference but if we finish this season in 8th, which I'm sure the majority if not all would have taken at the start of the year, then how do you think the reaction will go? There will be criticism flying left right and centre.

I'm just worried about the management and players becoming victims of their own success and a negative atmosphere forming around the club once more.

Two seasons ago we were walking League One and people were predicting pretty much straight wins up to the end of the year and when we finished second a lot claimed we had been awful, didn't deserve to go up etc... only considering the slide and not how well we'd done to get into a position where if we slid we'd still hit our goal.

 

[Johnny Bravo]

I honestly think a bad run for us is a string of draws with the odd defeat- like August/early September. I don't see a prediction of 80-85 points as dreaming. In my original prediction i threw in quite a few disappointing draws for good measure.

I believe :

74-79 - A little pessimistic

80-85- About right

86 + - A bit OTT

That is exactly what I was on about. If we lose three games in a row and finish on was 70 points how will you react?

 

[dbarraclough]

To finish on 70 points we would need to exhibit Derby type form. So yes, to mirror a Derby like performance for virtually the 2nd half of the season I would have to be disappointed.
After the initial disappointment, i would reflect on what a season of 2 halves we'd had and feel positive that this is a young squad and hopefully improve on the 8th place for next season.
I predicted 8th at the start so it wouldn't be all doom and gloom

 

[TheEastIsRed]

Reading H 3
QPR H 3
Sheep A 3
Wednesday H 3
Coventry A 3
Doncaster A 1
Sheff UTD H 3
Boro H 1
Leicester A 1
Swansea H 3
Preston A 1
Barnsley A 3
Posh H 3
Palace H 3
Newcastle A 0
Bristol A 1
Cardiff H 1
Ipswich H 3
Blackpool A 1
Plymouth H 3
Sc**thorpe A 3

46 points, exactly what we're on now. 92 total. Champions. Believe.

 

[Ravi]

I think some form of collapse is likely.

Although I don't think it really makes much difference what some fans predict on a message board - and frankly, they can laugh all they like - currently we're always likely to have more ammunition.

46 points I reckon is probably safe from relegation this season. Anything on top of this is a bonus

Jeez! I'm glad you're not running the club. You'd make Derby's current lack of ambition look like reaching for the stars! ;D

 

[MAC]

just made my day because looking at the predictions we dont need to be a super team or beat any records just a good record will get us up. Now i dont just believe we can i reckon we will

 

[winnits]

Jeez! I'm glad you're not running the club. You'd make Derby's current lack of ambition look like reaching for the stars! ;D

I made the comment as a fan, not as a person running the club

A comfortable mid-table finish was my aspiration at the start of the season, perhaps with a sniff of the playoffs - and right now I'm delighted. But I'm not about to fall into the 'Notts County' trap of counting any chickens before they're hatched.

So I'll stick with my modest aspirations and certainly hope that Forest continue to blow them out the water.

 

[Ravi]

I made the comment as a fan, not as a person running the club

A comfortable mid-table finish was my aspiration at the start of the season, perhaps with a sniff of the playoffs - and right now I'm delighted. But I'm not about to fall into the 'Notts County' trap of counting any chickens before they're hatched.

So I'll stick with my modest aspirations and certainly hope that Forest continue to blow them out the water.

On that we agree.

 

[EmJay]

I did the BBC predictor which ended up with us top on 88 points.

However because of postponed games that haven't been reaaranged yet Newcastle (also 88) and WBA (86) had played a game less than us meaning if they both won we'd have to settle for a Playoff match against Sheffield United with the winners to meet eithier Leicester or Cardiff at Wembley.

 

[richiered]

I did the BBC predictor which ended up with us top on 88 points.

However because of postponed games that haven't been reaaranged yet Newcastle (also 88) and WBA (86) had played a game less than us meaning if they both won we'd have to settle for a Playoff match against Sheffield United with the winners to meet eithier Leicester or Cardiff at Wembley.

As i said to my best mate who's a baggie, others may have games in hand, but they dont have the points yet, e.g. Leicester, 3 games in hand on sat, could have leveled with us, IF they had taken the full points from all games.

We have the squad, and teams are genuinely scared of us. Never in a million years did i think that we could get auto this season, but even I, the most pessimistic of people, am starting to believe!!