proof that we are the 2nd biggest club in this division

[sebs]

i have done a bit of statistical analysis of attendances in this division.

i have taken the percentage difference of each attendance from every team's away games this season compared to the average attendance of the home team.

for example, against watford on boxing day there was an attendance of 17086. their average attendance is 14178 - so we provided a 20.5% boost to their attendance.

when coventry came here yesterday there was an attendance of 28608. our average attendance is 23458 - so they provided a 22% boost to our attendance.

obviously midweek games are down and these games were at christmas so there is a bit of a boost, but all this should average out.

so here is the table of the average attendance boost provided by each team in this league this season:

newcastle +26.0%
nottm forest +12.4%
middlesbrough +10.4%
leicester +6.01%
sheff wed +2.02
derby +1.72%
west brom +1.22%
doncaster +1.18%
crystal palace +0.60%
barnsley -0.01%
ipswich -0.23%
qpr -0.48%
plymouth -1.43%
cardiff -2.39%
sheff utd -2.47%
blackpool -3.76%
peterborough -4.02%
bristol c -5.61%
watford -5.95%
preston -6.25%
reading -6.65%
swansea -6.76%
coventry -7.14%
scunthorpe -7.82%

this shows:
1) how much of a pull the team are for locals when they arrive
2) how big the away support of a team is

btw we have only been down on the average attendance of a team we have gone to on three occasions this season:
vs cardiff
vs ipswich
vs qpr

none of these were more than 3% off the team's standard average attendance

derby have been down more than 10% three times this season - against cardiff, palace and middlesbrough.

when we visited peterborough, plymouth and watford they experienced an attendance more than 20% bigger than they usually achieve.

 

[wearenottingham]

effort.

 

[adam09]

What we do get? A medal?

 

[sebs]

top 3 matches this season for biggest crowd compared to average:
1. saturday 12th december: barnsley 2-2 newcastle 20079 +53%
2. saturday 3rd october: peterborough 1-2 nottingham forest 12711 +41%
3. sunday 29th october: plymouth 0-1 nottingham forest 14792 +39%

bottom 3 matches this season for lowest crowd compared to average:
1. sunday 6th december scunthorpe 1-0 coventry 5013 -27%
2. saturday 31st october scunthorpe 0-2 swansea 5201 - 24%
3. saturday 3rd october preston 0-0 west brom 9780 -23%

 

[forestscott1]

Sebs are you a math teacher who has done all his marking. Well done young man !

 

[Erik]

i have done a bit of statistical analysis of attendances in this division.
............
more than 20% bigger than they usually achieve.

I haven't done any statistical analysis but I calculate you have too much spare time on your hands!

Good effort though. Well done.

 

[Zeus]

You lost me after the first sentence. I saw Percentages and ran away.......

You can manipulate statistics any which way you like sometimes to prove any point you want to make.

 

[cknu]

Glad to see someone else is bored ... ;D

 

[forestscott1]

Sebs, at Ulrika Johnssons current shagging rate could you please calculate when she'll get round to me. Thanks in advance. ;D

 

[sebs]

You lost me after the first sentence. I saw Percentages and ran away.......

You can manipulate statistics any which way you like sometimes to prove any point you want to make.

that's what people who don't understand maths say as an excuse for not doing it.

basically this is a comparison of the gate a team would usually get compared to what they got when each team arrived.

therefore when forest roll into town you would expect about 12% more fans than you would usually get. eg if you usually get 20000 fans, when forest come to town you would get 22400.

you would also expect not to win because we are unbeaten away.

 

[winnits]

It's an interesting exercise and definitely indicative, but you have to factor in seasonal variations, time of week of fixture too - there's no way on Earth that Coventry are a sufficient lure to drive a 22% increase on our attendances - however, first home fixture after Xmas, on a great run of form etc did so.

 

[Kier]

There will be a definite increase in home attendences from now; people jumping onto the bandwagon. I would be surprised if we get many attendences below 24,000 before the end of the season.

 

[Red Duster]

The BBC commentator said that Newcastle United and Direby are CLEARLY the two best supported teams in CCC, he must find sums boring.

Sebs - is it a big job to calculate your percentages to include only the games before christmas (to see what a piss poor draw chaventry shitty really are?)

 

[RedMark]

Dont think you can really base the size of a club on just attendances really.

Leeds and Norwich have averaged more then us at home so are they bigger clubs ?

 

[sebs]

The BBC commentator said that Newcastle United and Direby are CLEARLY the two best supported teams in CCC, he must find sums boring.

Sebs - is it a big job to calculate your percentages to include only the games before christmas (to see what a p**s poor draw chaventry s**tty really are?)

no it's really easy...

ok - for games before christmas only the table looked like this:

newcastle +26.7%
forest +13.0%
middlesbrough +9.07%
leicester +7.00%
sheff wed +2.81%
derby +1.93%
west brom +1.88%
doncaster +1.47%
barnsley +1.00%
ipswich -0.32%
palace -0.61%
qpr -1.06%
sheff utd -1.82%
cardiff -2.09%
plymouth argyle -2.22%
blackpool -3.55%
bristol c -5.15%
peterborough -5.24%
preston -5.29%
watford -6.38%
scunthorpe -7.28%
reading -7.35%
swansea -7.76%
coventry -8.76%

 

[sebs]

Dont think you can really base the size of a club on just attendances really.

Leeds and Norwich have averaged more then us at home so are they bigger clubs ?

that's precisely why i've done this.

now winnits has pointed out a few other things affect attendances, eg whether it's on telly, seasonal factors, day of the week, however, roughly the size of the attendance will depend on the draw of the opposition and size of the away following.

the "size" of a club is not just dependent on home attendances. what this shows is that when derby county roll into town you expect an average crowd and when nottingham forest roll into town you expect a bumper crowd. the percentages show that you expect AT LEAST 1000 more fans when forest turn up this season.

i'm almost certain that leicester and derby's percentages are a lot higher than they will be eventually because they've both played sell outs at the city ground this season as well.

 

[sebs]

perhaps instead of percentages i will do it like this:

team x are an average championship side and would expect a crowd of 18000 at home matches. this will be their attendances this season:

barnsley 17998
blackpool 17323
bristol city 16990
cardiff city 17569
coventry 16716
crystal palace 18108
derby county 18310
doncaster 18211
ipswich 17959
leicester city 19082
middlesbrough 19874
newcastle 22670
nottingham forest 20231
peterborough 17277
plymouth argyle 17742
preston north end 16874
queens park rangers 17914
reading 16802
scunthorpe 16592
sheffield utd 17555
sheffield weds 18363
swansea city 16783
watford 16928
west brom 18220

home attendances can be boosted by gimmicks, dodgy tickets and runs of form. away attendances would be effected by all this, but you don't get barnsley away fans getting cheap deals everywhere, or whenever barnsley turn up it's kids for a quid and wear white day with a baseball exhibition outside at every ground. all these things will even out over the course of the season.

 

[Bridgfordred79]

:wub:

 

[eezzeetiger]

perhaps instead of percentages i will do it like this:

team x are an average championship side and would expect a crowd of 18000 at home matches. this will be their attendances this season:

barnsley 17998
blackpool 17323
bristol city 16990
cardiff city 17569
coventry 16716
crystal palace 18108
derby county 18310
doncaster 18211
ipswich 17959
leicester city 19082
middlesbrough 19874
newcastle 22670
nottingham forest 20231
peterborough 17277
plymouth argyle 17742
preston north end 16874
queens park rangers 17914
reading 16802
sc**thorpe 16592
sheffield utd 17555
sheffield weds 18363
swansea city 16783
watford 16928
west brom 18220

home attendances can be boosted by gimmicks, dodgy tickets and runs of form. away attendances would be effected by all this, but you don't get barnsley away fans getting cheap deals everywhere, or whenever barnsley turn up it's kids for a quid and wear white day with a baseball exhibition outside at every ground. all these things will even out over the course of the season.

Well done Sebs, well thought out, and patient explanation with worked examples...STAR MAN

 

[Forever Forest]

Agreed. This is a brilliant study. 1st class honours.

Id say Leeds are bigger than Forest and Norwich get big attendances as their is no other team within around 60 miles so if you want to watch professional football and you live in Norwich - you go and watch Norwich. Whereas say if you live in Heanor (I do) youve got Forest, Sadpies and the sheep all eqidistant. Then youve got Mansfield and Chesterfield within 40 mins drive and loads of other clubs within an hours drive.

I also believe we are probably one of the biggest clubs in the division - along with the geordies and Sheff Weds. We are a big attraction to other teams and this report proves it - well done SEBS ;D

Well done Sebs, well thought out, and patient explanation with worked examples...STAR MAN

 

[Redwalton]

Try talking to girls.

 

[Seargant Reddog]

saw a post on a Sheffield Utd forum
about bigger clubs ,i cant post the link,apparently Huddersfield are a bigger club than us!!!!!!!!!

 

[Ravi]

saw a post on a Sheffield Utd forum
about bigger clubs ,i cant post the link,apparently Huddersfield are a bigger club than us!!!!!!!!!

They obviously have very long memories

 

[Joe]

perhaps instead of percentages i will do it like this:

team x are an average championship side and would expect a crowd of 18000 at home matches. this will be their attendances this season:

barnsley 17998

one old couple must really hate barnsley :-*

 

[06harlo]

very good although someone needs something to do in there spare time!