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Thanks for the reply Rich. Appreciate your insight and opinion. Very interesting that you are seeing an upsurge in M&A activity. Although alone it is not an indicator of a bull market (see AOL/Time Warner deal) combined with the following indicators such as historically low p/e ratios on the s&p, earnings outperformance, wider spreads on new issue fixed income commercial paper (simlilar to the Jan-March 2009 levels which arguably pre empted the bull rally that came after the March 2009 low), techinical support levels holding, and most of my hedge fund friends holding very high cash ratios it al suggest to me a strong final 1/4. take your point on VIX though.
Thanks for the message. I have seen quite a bit of an upsurge in M&A activity within my own sphere of work, but if you're in private equities then I'd say your better placed to tell me if there is going to be a strong Q4 on the equity index. Given the volatility across all of the markets in Q2 I'd perhaps focus on ensuring at least a less rocky Q3 before hoping for a startling upturn in Q4.
I think growth is going to be a key feature going into FY13 across sectors. If you're looking for my advice on where to lay some of the funds you manage I'd be inclined to go for companies that haven't struggled with organic growth in FY12, as they will be the ones who will be able to exploit the vertical markets opening up in Q1FY13.
If you're seeing strong indicators of a good period, then you're better placed than me to know where to invest. I hear steel is always a good investment in Sheffield.